C-5 Galaxy
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Got to get the maintenance depots ready. (March 16/10)

DID’s FOCUS articles offer in-depth, updated looks at significant military programs of record. When it was introduced, back in 1970, the C-5 Galaxy was the largest plane in the world. It also has the highest operating cost of any Air Force weapon system, owing to extremely high maintenance demands as well as poor fuel economy. Worse, availability rates routinely hover near 50%. To add insult to injury, the Russians not only built a bigger plane (the AN-124), they sold it off at the end of the Cold War to semi-private operators, turning it into a commercial success whose customer list now includes… NATO.

Meanwhile, the USA still needs long-range, heavy load airlift. The AN-124’s commercial success may get its production line restarted, but the C-5 has no such hope. Boeing’s smaller C-17s cost more than $200 million per plane. That’s about the cost of a 747-8 freighter, for much higher availability rates than the C-5. What’s the right balance?

Sunrise? Sunset?
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The US Air Force believed it could save money by upgrading the older C-5s to renew their avionics (AMP) and engines (RERP). Their hope was that this would eliminate the problems that keep so many C-5s in the hangar, cut down on future maintenance costs, and grow airlift capacity without adding new planes. Unfortunately, the program is program experienced major cost growth, and the C-5M program wound up being both cut in size, and cut in 2. The C-5A and C-5B/C fleets are now slated for different treatment, which will deliver fewer of the hoped-for benefits in exchange for lower costs and lower risk.

• The C-5’s AMP/RERP Changes
• The AMP/RERP Program and the C-5 Gamble
• Contracts & Key Events, 1999 – Present [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
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FRES-U finalists:
There can be… none?
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FRES-SV weapon agreement; Shake, rattle & roll testing; BAE shifts course in bid to win FRES-SV contract. (March 12/10)

Many of Britain’s army vehicles are old and worn, and the necessities of hard service on the battlefield are only accelerating that wear. The multi-billion pound “Future Rapid Effects System” (FRES) aims to recapitalize the core of Britain’s armored vehicle fleet over the next decade or more, filling many of the same medium armor roles as the Stryker Family of armored wheeled vehicles and/or the Future Combat Systems’ Manned Ground Vehicle family. Current estimates indicate a potential requirement for over 3,700 FRES vehicles, including utility and reconnaissance variants. Even so, one should be cautioned that actual numbers bought usually fall short of intended figures for early-stage defense programs.

The FRES program was spawned by the UK’s withdrawal from the German-Dutch-UK Boxer MRAV modular wheeled APC program, in order to develop a more deployable vehicle that fit Britain’s exact requirements. Those initial requirements were challenging, however, and experience in Iraq and Afghanistan led to decisions that changed a number of requirements. In the end, GD MOWAG’s Piranha V won the utility vehicle competition. FRES-U is not the end of the competition, however, or the contracts. In fact, FRES-U had the winning bidder’s preferred status revoked; that entire phase will now take a back seat to the FRS-SV scout version…

• FRES: The Program
• FRES: Contracts & Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings [updated]
• Appendix 1 – The British Army’s Armored Vehicle Fleet, late 2006
• Appendix 2 – A New Procurement Approach: System House Challenges
• Appendix 3 – FRES: Key Challenges for the Contractors
• Appendix 4 – FRES Experiments: Electronic Architecture Contracts
• Appendix 5 – FRES Experiments: Vehicle-Related Contracts
  
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F-35A: incoming…
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Denmark picks Super Hornet?; New program head nominated; Landing gear contract; new flight decks wanted. (March 18/10)

The $300+ billion F-35 Joint Strike fighter may well be the largest single global defense program in history. This major multinational program is intended to produce an “affordably stealthy” multi-role fighter that will have 3 variants: the F-35A conventional version for the US Air Force et. al.; the F-35B Short Take-Off, Vertical Landing for the US Marines, British Royal Navy, et. al.; and the F-35C conventional carrier-launched version for the US Navy. The aircraft is named after Lockheed’s famous WW2 P-38 Lightning, and the Mach 2, stacked-engine English Electric (now BAE) Lightning jet. Lightning II system development partners included The USA & Britain (Tier 1), Italy and the Netherlands (Tier 2), and Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway and Turkey (Tier 3), with Singapore and Israel as “Security Cooperation Partners.” Now the challenge is agreeing on production phase membership and arrangements, to be followed by initial purchase commitments in 2009-2010.

This updated article has expanded to feature more detail regarding the F-35 program, including contracts, sub-contracts, and notable events and reports.

• The F-35 Family of Aircraft
• F-35 Program: Production Timelines & Structure
• F-35 Program: Controversies and Competitions
• F-35 Program: Events & Developments, CY 2009-2010 [updated]
• F-35 Program: System Development & Production Contracts, FY 2009-2010
• F-35 Program: Ancillary and Sub-contracts, FY 2009 – 2010 [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources [updated]
• Video Viewing [NEW]
  
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F-16B & X-35
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Expected March 2010 deal faces 1+ year delay; other Mid-east export issues come up. (March 11/10)

In an exclusive June 2006 interview, Israeli Air Force (IAF) chief procurement officer Brigadier-General Ze’ev Snir told Israel’s Globes publication that the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter was a key part of their IAF recapitalization plans, and that Israel intends to buy over 100 of the fighters to replace their F-16s over time. Since then, however, the expected cost of that purchase has more than doubled.

The necessary contract must deal with that sticker shock, with issues like the incorporation of Israeli technologies, and with slips in the internal F-35 program before it can be signed. Israel is even contemplating delaying its purchase, removing an important early adopter for the multi-national program…

• F-35 for Israel: Key Issues
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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South African JAS-39D
c. Gripen International
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Swedish upgrade project, issue with India competition, BAE divesting, South African fleet just for show? (March 10/10)

As a neutral country with a long history of providing for its own defense against all comers, Sweden also has a long tradition of building excellent high-performance fighters with a distinctive look. From the long-serving Saab-35 Draken (“Dragon,” 1955-2005) to the Mach 2, canard-winged Saab-37 Viggen (“Thunderbolt,” 1971-2005), Swedish fighters have stressed short-field launch from dispersed/improvised air fields, world-class performance, and leading-edge design. This record of consistent project success is nothing short of amazing for a country whose population over this period has ranged from 7-9 million people.

This is DID’s FOCUS Article for background, news, and contract awards related to the JAS-39 Gripen (“Griffon”), a canard-winged successor to the Viggen that was built as one of the world’s first 4+ generation fighters. Gripen remains the only lightweight 4+ generation fighter type in service, its performance and operational economics are both world-class, and it has become one of the most recognized fighter aircraft on the planet. Unfortunately for its builders, that recognition has come from its appearance in Saab-Volvo TV commercials, rather than from hoped-for levels of military export success. With its 4+ generation competitors clustered in the $60-120+ million range vs. the Gripen’s claimed $40 million/ $50-60 million for Gripen NG, is there a light at the end of the tunnel for Sweden’s lightweight fighter?

• JAS-39: The Gripen Program
• JAS-39NG: A Way Forward?
• JAS-39 Gripen: Sales Opportunities
• JAS-39 Gripen: Major Events [updated]
• JAS-39 Gripen: Contracts & Awards [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
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Old as the hills…
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Boeing pares down its v2.0 KC-767 offering, as Round 1’s winner walks away. (March 8/10)

DID’s FOCUS articles cover major weapons acquisition programs – and no program is more important to the USAF than its current bid to replace its aerial tanker fleet. In January 2007, the big question was whether there would be a competition for the USA’s KC-X proposal, which will cover 175 production aircraft and 4 test platforms. The cost for this first phase alone is likely to reach $35+ billion spread over about 20 years, but America’s 40-50 year old aerial tanker fleet demands new planes. Otherwise, unpredictable age or fatigue issues, like the ones its F-15A-D fleet experienced in 2008, could ground its aerial tankers – and with them, a substantial slice of the USA’s total airpower. KC-Y and KC-Z contracts may follow in subsequent decades, in order to replace all 530 KC-135s/ Boeing 707s (195 active; ANG 251; Reserve 84) that were delivered until 1965, as well as the USAF’s 59 larger KC-10 tankers delivered from 1979-1987.

In the end, it was Team Boeing’s KC-767 Advanced (767-200 derivative) vs. the Team Northrop Grumman KC-30B (Airbus A330-200 derivative), both within the Pentagon and in the halls of Congress. Most observers correctly pointed out that all this lobbying was important, since the financial stakes guaranteed a huge political fight no matter which side won. A fight that ended up sinking, and restarting, the entire program. Recent additions revolve around the KC-X v2.0 draft RFP. The canceled competition is on again, with a decision expected by mid-2010. Except that it won’t be a competition…

• KC-X: The Story So Far
• KC-X RFP v2.0: The New Structure
• The Contenders and The Cargo Factor: KC-30B, KC-767… KC-777?
• KC-X: Teams & Locations
• KC-X RFP: Key Developments [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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RAAF C-130J-30, flares
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FY 2009-2011 budget updates, Australian modernization, Tunisia buys 2. (March 2/10)

The C-130 Hercules remains one of the longest-running aerospace manufacturing programs of all time. Since 1956, over 40 models and variants have served as the tactical airlift backbone for over 50 nations. The C-130J looks similar, but the number of changes almost make it a new aircraft. Those changes also created issues; the program has been the focus of a great deal of controversy in America – and even of a full program restructuring in 2006. Some early concerns from critics were put to rest when the C-130J demonstrated in-theater performance on the front lines that represented a major improvement over its C-130E/H predecessors. A valid follow-on question might be: does it break the bottleneck limitations that have hobbled a number of multi-billion dollar US Army vehicle development programs?

C-130J customers now include Australia, Britain, Canada, Denmark, India, Iraq, Italy, Norway, Oman, Qatar, Tunisia, and the United States. American C-130J purchases are taking place under both annual budgets and supplemental wartime funding, in order to replace tactical transport and special forces fleets that are flying old aircraft and in dire need of major repairs. This DID FOCUS Article describes the C-130J, examines the bottleneck issue, covers global developments for the C-130J program, and looks at present and emerging competitors.

• The (Private) Labors of Hercules: the C-130J
• The C-130J and the 20-ton Bottleneck
• Turbulent Flight: The C-130J Program
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources, incl. emerging competitors & Special Operations requirements
  
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Into that good night
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Over $500M for improvements, SDV-only small business solicitation, Russia’s PAK-FA. (March 2/10)

The 5th-generation F-22A Raptor fighter program has been the subject of fierce controversy, with advocates and detractors aplenty. On the one hand, the aircraft offers full stealth, revolutionary radar and sensor capabilities, dual air-air and air-ground SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) capabilities, the ability to cruise above Mach 1 without afterburners, thrust-vectoring super-maneuverability… and a ridiculously lopsided kill record in exercises against the best American fighters. On the other hand, critics charge that it’s too expensive, too limited, and cripples the USAF’s overall force structure. Meanwhile, close American allies like Australia, Japan and Israel, and other allies like Korea, are pressing the USA to abandon its “no export” policy. Most already fly F-15s, but several were interested in an export version of the F-22 in order to help them deal with advanced – and advancing – Russian-designed aircraft, air-to-air missiles, and surface-to-air missile systems.

This DID FOCUS Article covers both sides of the F-22 controversies in the USA and abroad, and it will also be updated over time to cover and backfill contracts and events related to the F-22A Raptor program. This article has been restored to full public access, as F-22 program winds down to its end.

• The F-22 Raptor: Key Capabilities
• The F-22 Raptor: Criticisms & Controversies
• F-22 Raptor: Program and Events
  • Events: 2010 [updated]
  • Events: 2009
  • Events: 2008
  • Events: 2007
  • Events: 2006
  • Events: Pre-2006
• F-22 Raptor: Contracts & Production
  • Contracts: FY 2010 [updated]
  • Contracts: FY 2009
  • Contracts: FY 2008
  • Contracts: FY 2007
  • Contracts: FY 2006
  • Contracts: Pre-FY 2006
• Additional Readings & Sources
  • The F-22 & Key Components
  • The F-22 Program
  • Official Reports
  • Controversies & Events [updated]
    
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X-45C, F/A18F, F-15E
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Classified program creates X-45C delays, as Boeing & Lockheed Martin “pause” bomber cooperation. (March 2/10)

In 1998, Boeing began a revolutionary development program: create an unmanned aircraft that was about the size of the USAF’s F-117 stealth fighter, with similar performance, better stealth, and better range. DARPA’s J-UCAS program launched Boeing’s X-45A and Northrop Grumman’s X-47B Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAVs), which went on to perform tests that included multiple UCAV flights, bomb drops, and other aviation firsts.

J-UCAS was effectively killed in 2006, though it went on to spawn the Navy’s UCAS-D competition. NGC’s X-47B Pegasus won, but the Pentagon’s back-and-forth over the USAF’s Next-Generation Bomber program will either create a big opening for UCAVs, or allow Boeing to lever new advances it makes in stealthy UCAV design for its bid. Not so coincidentally, Boeing is using company funds to put its X-45C back on track, as the “Phantom Ray”...

• Boeing’s X-45s
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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F136 Prototype
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Gates provides the termination business case, key players unimpressed; Rival F135 may see increased costs. (Feb 25/10)

Back in January 2006 the Pentagon attempted to remove FY 2007 funding from the F-35 Lightning II’s second engine option, the GE/ Rolls Royce F136. As predicted, protests from fellow Tier 1 partner Britain followed at the highest levels of government. Many in the US Congress, meanwhile, were openly skeptical of handing Pratt & Whitney’s F135 engine the keys to the entire F-35 fleet. In the end, the Pentagon’s argument that low program risk made R&D spending on F136 development a waste, failed. Congress re-inserted funding, and F136 development has continued on schedule.

Fast forward to the FY 2008 budget. For the second year in a row, the Pentagon removed funding for the GE/RR F136, arguing that killing the F136 would free up $1.8 billion. Politicians disagreed, and the USA’s GAO auditors backed them up. Funding was reinstated. Again. So far, that process has been repeated every year. Now it’s 2010, and the 2011 budget is in progress. The USAF is trying to kill the F136. Again.

• The F136 Program
• The F136: Detractors and Defenders
• Updates and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
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