Old as the hills…
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DID’s FOCUS articles cover major weapons acquisition programs – and no program is more important to the USAF than its current bid to replace its aerial tanker fleet. In January 2007, the big question was whether there would be a competition for the USA’s KC-X proposal, which will cover 175 production aircraft and 4 test platforms. The cost for this first phase alone is likely to reach $35+ billion spread over about 20 years, but America’s 40-50 year old aerial tanker fleet demands new planes. Otherwise, unpredictable age or fatigue issues, like the ones its F-15A-D fleet experienced in 2008, could ground its aerial tankers – and with them, a substantial slice of the USA’s total airpower. KC-Y and KC-Z contracts may follow in subsequent decades, in order to replace all 530 KC-135s/ Boeing 707s (195 active; ANG 251; Reserve 84) that were delivered until 1965, as well as the USAF’s 59 larger KC-10 tankers delivered from 1979-1987.

In the end, it was Team Boeing’s KC-767 Advanced (767-200 derivative) vs. the Team Northrop Grumman KC-30B (Airbus A330-200 derivative), both within the Pentagon and in the halls of Congress. Most observers correctly pointed out that all this lobbying was important, since the financial stakes guaranteed a huge political fight no matter which side won. A fight that ended up sinking, and restarting, the entire program.

Recent additions revolve around the KC-X v2.0 draft RFP’s release, as the canceled competition is on again, with a decision expected by mid-2010. As expected, complaints regarding the structure and process have already begun. The latest additions include an important milestone for EADS, amid doubts that the team can win under the new competition…

• KC-X: The Story So Far
• KC-X RFP v2.0: The New Structure [NEW]
• The Contenders and The Cargo Factor: KC-30B, KC-767… KC-777?
• KC-X: Teams & Locations [updated]
• KC-X RFP: Key Developments [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
  Continue Reading… »

F-16B & X-35
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In an exclusive June 2006 interview, Israeli Air Force (IAF) chief procurement officer Brigadier-General Ze’ev Snir told Israel’s Globes publication that the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter was a key part of their IAF recapitalization plans, and that Israel intends to buy over 100 of the fighters to replace their F-16s over time. A 100-plane deal would have cost at least $5 billion under Israel’s original estimates, and would involve the F-35A conventional take-off Air Force version. Snir added that:

“The IAF would be happy to equip itself with 24 F-22s but the problem at this time is the US refusal to sell the plane, and its $200 million price tag.”

Unfortunately, Israel’s September 2008 request for its first 75 F-35s would end up costing them an estimated $15 billion – or about $200 million per plane. All in return for a fighter with poorer air-to-air performance than the F-22, and less stealth. The necessary contract must deal with that sticker shock, and with issues like the incorporation of Israeli technologies, before it can be signed. The latest news is that Israel may forego its own weapons and technologies, in order to curtail a $130 million price tag – and may decide to delay its F-35 purchase by 2 years…

• F-35 for Israel: Key Issues
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
  Continue Reading… »

Austrian Alouette-III
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In 2003, India issued an RFP for 197 light helicopters to replace its Army’s aging fleet of Chetaks (Aerospatiale SA316 Alouette III) and Cheetahs (SE316B Alouette II). These helicopters are old designs, but they have consistently proven themselves in high altitude operations, and remain useful as long as their airframe’s remain safe. The problem is, at their age that isn’t a very long time. India’s Army Aviation Corps needs replacements, and wants new helicopters with better performance and support characteristics. These new machines will perform a variety of armed light utility tasks, including ferrying loads of up to 75 kg to troops based at 23,000 feet above sea level in Kashmir, the Siachen Glacier, etc. Operation at these altitudes has traditionally been very challenging for helicopters, owing to reduced rotor lift in the thinning air.

Indian officials were discussing a deal worth between $500-$600 million to buy 60 helicopters outright, with the remaining 137 being built under license by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). Eurocopter’s AS550 C3 Fennec and Bell Textron’s 407 competed in the second and final round of summer trials, and as 2007 ticked toward a close, it looked like we had a winner. As often happens in India, however, the process ended up completely derailed. There’s a new RFP out – but inside lobbying from HAL has backed India off of its initial goal of 312 foreign helicopters.

Bell Helicopter’s withdrawal from the v2.0 RFP made this a smaller competition. Now there are reports that dithering by India’s procurement bureaucracy will make it a late one…

• The Contenders
• Milestones & Developments [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
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F136 Prototype
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In January 2006, “Reports: Cuts on the way to F-35 JSF R&D, Engine Programs” covered Pentagon attempts to remove FY 2007 funding from the F-35 Lightning II’s second engine option, the GE/ Rolls Royce F136. As predicted, protests from fellow Tier 1 partner Britain followed at the highest levels of government. Many in the US Congress, meanwhile, were openly skeptical of handing Pratt & Whitney’s F135 engine the keys to the entire F-35 fleet. In the end, the Pentagon’s argument that low program risk made R&D spending on F136 development a waste, failed. Congress re-inserted funding, and F136 development has continued on schedule.

Fast forward to the FY 2008 budget. For the second year in a row, the Pentagon removed funding for the GE/RR F136, arguing that killing the F136 would free up $1.8 billion. Politicians disagreed, and the USA’s GAO auditors backed them up. Funding was reinstated. Again. So far, that process has been repeated every year. Now it’s 2009, and the 2010 budget is in progress. Once again, the USAF is trying to kill the F136.

This time, there’s lukewarm Senate support for the Pentagon – but strong House of Representatives opposition, which was recently reiterated as cost estimates for the incumbent F135 engine rise 24%, and reports of other issues surface. The latest developments include reinsated funding in the signed FY 2010 defense budget, and the need for a minor engine part redesign by the F136 team after a testing failure…

• The F136 Program
• The F136: Detractors and Defenders
• Updates and Key Events [updated]
• Additional Readings
  
  Continue Reading… »

GMD launch, 2001
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The USA’s Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) program uses land-based missiles to intercept incoming ballistic missiles in the middle of their flight, outside the atmosphere. The missiles are currently based at 2 sites in the USA: Vandenberg AFB in California, and Fort Greely in Alaska.

Patriot missiles provide what’s known as terminal-phase defense options, while longer-reach options like the land-based THAAD perform terminal or descent-phase interceptions. Both can be used against intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), but their sensors and flight ranges are best suited to defense against shorter range missiles launched from in-theater. In contrast, GMD is designed to defend against ICBMs. It depends on tracking that begins in the boost phase, in order to allow true mid-course interception attempts in space, before descent or terminal phase options like THAAD and then Patriot would be tried. In order to accomplish that task, GMD missiles must use data feeds from an assortment of long-range sensors, including the naval SBX radar.

The longer term question is whether GMD will continue to receive contracts for production and development, given directions set out by the new Obama administration. Recent developments include a key loss in Europe, layoffs at Boeing, and related educational grants from Northrop Grumman…

Continue Reading… »

F-35A: incoming…
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The F-35 Lightning II is a major multinational program which is intended to produce an “affordably stealthy” multi-role strike fighter that will have three variants: the F-35A conventional version for the US Air Force et. al.; the F-35B Short Take-Off, Vertical Landing for the US Marines, British Royal Navy, et. al.; and the F-35C conventional carrier-launched version for the US Navy. The aircraft is named after Lockheed’s famous WW2 P-38 Lightning, and the Mach 2, stacked-engine English Electric (now BAE) Lightning jet. System development partners included The USA & Britain (Tier 1), Italy and the Netherlands (Tier 2), and Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway and Turkey (Tier 3), with Singapore and Israel as “Security Cooperation Partners.” Now the challenge is agreeing on production phase membership and arrangements, to be followed by initial purchase commitments around 2008-2009.

This updated article has expanded to feature more detail regarding the $300 billion F-35 program, including other contracts as well as notable events. New material is highlighted by putting it in green type. Recent news includes noise issues in Norway, varying reactions and estimates in response to the 2009 JET report, 2010 budget results, basing decisions in the USA, and 2 senior appointments within the program teams…

• The F-35 Family of Aircraft (i.e. “Continue reading…”)
• F-35 Program: Production Timelines & Structure
• F-35 Program: Controversies and Competitions
• F-35 Program: Events & Developments, CY 2009-2010 [updated]
• F-35 Program: System Development & Production Contracts, FY 2009-2010 [updated]
• F-35 Program: Ancillary and Sub-contracts, FY 2009 – 2010 [updated]
• Additional Readings & Sources
  
  Continue Reading… »

Into that good night
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The 5th-generation F-22A Raptor fighter program has been the subject of fierce controversy, with advocates and detractors aplenty. On the one hand, the aircraft offers full stealth, revolutionary radar and sensor capabilities, dual air-air and air-ground SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) capabilities, the ability to cruise above Mach 1 without afterburners, thrust-vectoring super-maneuverability… and a ridiculously lopsided kill record in exercises against the best American fighters. On the other hand, critics charge that it’s too expensive, too limited, and cripples the USAF’s overall force structure. Meanwhile, close American allies like Australia, Japan and Israel, and other allies like Korea, are pressing the USA to abandon its “no export” policy. Most already fly F-15s, but they’re interested in an export version of the F-22 in order to help them deal with advanced – and advancing – Russian-designed aircraft, air-to-air missiles, and surface-to-air missile systems.

This DID FOCUS Article covers both sides of the F-22 controversies in the USA and abroad, and it will also be updated over time to cover and backfill contracts and events related to the F-22A Raptor program. This article has been restored to full public access, as F-22 program winds down to its end.

Recent updates include significant votes in the House and Senate, which will effectively end American F-22 production. But contracts continue, including a $474.2 million contract for 4 Lot X F-22A aircraft…

• The F-22 Raptor: Key Capabilities
• The F-22 Raptor: Criticisms & Controversies
• F-22 Raptor: Program and Events
  • Events: 2009
  • Events: 2008
  • Events: 2007
  • Events: 2006
  • Events: Pre-2006
• F-22 Raptor: Contracts & Production
  • Contracts: FY 2009 [updated]
  • Contracts: FY 2008
  • Contracts: FY 2007
  • Contracts: FY 2006
  • Contracts: Pre-FY 2006
• Additional Readings & Sources [updated]
  • The F-22 & Key Components
  • The F-22 Program
  • Official Reports
  • Controversies & Events
    
    Continue Reading… »

French Mirage F1s
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Morocco’s combat air force currently flies 2 squadrons of old F-5s, and 2 squadrons of only slightly newer Mirage F1s; T-37 light jets serve as key transitional trainers. Their neighbor and rival Algeria flies MiG-23s of similar vintage, but the Force Aerienne Algerienne also flies SU-24 Fencer and SU-25 Frogfoot strike aircraft, even more modern and capable MiG-29s, and is set to receive multi-role SU-30MKs as part of a multi-billion dollar weapons deal with Russia.

Morocco can’t beat that array. Instead, they’re looking for replacement aircraft that will prevent complete overmatch, and provide a measure of security. Initially, they looked to France. France’s Rafale is part of a set of European 4+ generation fighters that were developed and fielded during the 1990s-early 21st century, with the aim of surpassing existing offerings among America’s “teen series” fighters, as well as Russia’s Mig-29 Fulcrum and SU-27/30 Flanker family. “Dogfight at the Casbah: Rafale vs. F-16” discussed the French sales slip-ups that cost Dassault its first export order for the 4+ generation fighter. That outcome is now official.

Just to make things worse, the final multi-billion dollar deal involves new-build F-16s, at a price comparable to the rumored figures for the Rafale. Not to mention an accompanying American deal to replace Morocco’s T-37 trainer fleet with T-6Cs, and contracts for air-launched weapons, targeting pods, and C-27J short-haul transports. The latest development includes a DSCA request for CH-47D helicopters…

• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Why The F-16? DID Analysis – Dec. 2007
• Additional Readings
  
  Continue Reading… »

Galileo concept
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The European Union is cooperating with a number of outside investors to replace the USA’s free Global Positioning System service with an alternative under their own control. In addition to civilian GPS (the Open Service), services to be offered include a paid Commercial Service (with accuracy greater than 1 meter), and a Public Regulated Service (PRS)/ Safety of Life Service (SoL) for use by security authorities (police, military, etc.) and safety-critical transport applications (air-traffic control, automated aircraft landing, etc.). PRS/SoL aims to offer Open Service quality, with added robustness against jamming and the reliable detection of problems within 10 seconds.

Organizational issues and shortfalls in expected progress pushed the “Galileo” project back from its originally intended operational date of 2007 to 2013-14 – and doubts persist in several quarters about its economic model, even as security issues arise regarding China’s COMPASS project. After a public-private partnership model failed to agree among themselves or with the EU’s desired terms, the organization gained initial-stage approval for its plan to finance the program with tax dollars instead of the expected private investments. Political issues were overcome, albeit with some protest, by raiding other EU accounts for over EUR 3 billion (about $5.35 billion) in funds, rather than asking for more money from member states.

The latest set of updates cover developments in Galileo, and in related programs like GIOVE and EGNOS. While the project’s base funding is now more secure, its ability to remain within budget faces issues, as does the expected launch timetable. Recent events may even lead to a smaller Galileo constellation…

• Galileo: Goals, Structure & Costs
• “Eppur, Si Bloccare”: Trials & Tribulations [updated]
• Contracts and Key Events [updated]
• Appendix A: The EU Proposal – Going Forward (2007)
• Appendix B: Additional Readings [updated]
• Appendix C: Additional Readings – The Security Dimension
  
  Continue Reading… »

A129 ATAK
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Turkey has been looking to modernize its attack helicopter fleet since the mid-1990s, but the process has mostly served as an object lesson in how not to buy defense equipment. DID has covered difficulties with this competition before; after numerous snafus, technology transfer and production issues, and canceled competitions, all 3 invited American manufacturers had abandoned the competition entirely.

Even the most recent “final” round seemed imperiled, following reports of the Turkish military’s deep dissatisfaction with the choices; nevertheless, the competition survived long enough to pick a “winner”: an updated version of its A129. Now, signed industrial arrangements contracts with AugustaWestland allow the 12-year program to move forward at last. But Turkey didn’t just buy helicopters – they bought the model, lock, stock, and rotor. The “T-129” has now had its first flight, even as the Turkish military prepares an interim attack helicopter buy…

• The Finalists
• The Winner
• Contracts & Key Events
• Appendix A: “I Coulda Been A Contenda…”
• Additional Readings and Sources
  
  Continue Reading… »