May day: India’s New Basic & Intermediate Flight Trainers

April 15/13: I’m sorry, Danuj, you can’t do that. India’s Business Standard reports that the option for 37 more PC-7 Mk.II trainers is being stalled by HAL. The state-owned firm is demanding that the IAF buy 108 of their undeveloped HTT-40 trainer instead, in order to meet India’s requirement for a total of 183 basic trainers. They’re leaning on defense minister Antony’s recent fetish for India-only production, in order to avoid “corruption” in defense procurement.

We use fetish here in its traditional sense: a key component of animist magic that is performed as a placebo, in return for tangible recompense. To review:

After a long history of late or deficient performance on other aircraft programs, and a INR 600 million per trainer bid (vid. Dec 19/12) that got them thrown out of the competition, HAL has miraculously discovered that they can offer the HTT-40 for just INR 350 million per plane, a 42% reduction that’s suddenly cheaper than Pilatus’ proven INR 385 million figure. This will include development of an armed HTT-40, and HAL is also claiming lower life-cycle costs. A 42% reduction suggests that either the original bid was overpriced, or that the new bid is a deliberate lowball, to be followed by “unexpected” price hikes once political commitment makes it hard to back out. Meanwhile, life cycle cost estimates that mean anything require a flying fleet like Pilatus’, not paper promises without a prototype. The history of military programs suggests that HTT-40 O&M estimates will be too low, and will avoid the equally important question of service quality.

Meanwhile, the Indian Air Force will find it difficult to train its pilots, because HAL is lobbying to block planes the IAF says it needs, by making promises it almost certainly can’t keep. All in return for money and political favors. Which, somehow, doesn’t qualify as corruption.

HPT-32
(click to view full)

India’s stalled defense procurements have become an international joke, but they’re not funny to front-line participants. The country’s attempts to buy simple artillery pieces have become infamous, but their current problem with trainer aircraft is arguably a more significant wound.

You can’t produce pilots properly without appropriate training, but the IAF’s fleet of 114 locally-designed HPT-32 Deepak basic trainers has been grounded since August 2009, because they aren’t seen as reliable enough or safe enough to fly. Since then, equally aged HJT-16 Kiran jets are being used for both Stage-I and Stage-II fighter training. That yawning gap has added urgency to a replacement buy, but progress has been predictably slow. With its high-end Hawk AJT jet trainer deals behind them after 20+ years of effort, can the IAF take the next step, and plug the hole in the middle of its training? In May 2012, it did.

India’s Trainer Choice(s)

PC-7 Mark II
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By June 2011, Switzerland’s Pilatus had emerged as the IAF’s preferred basic choice with their PC-7 Mark II, which is in wide international use with over 20 air forces. The PC-7 Mark II, introduced in 1994, adds all of the avionics advances and some airframe changes from the P-9M, but uses a very cost-efficient Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-25C engine. The engine provides less power, in return for a lower price and lower operating costs. Ejection seats, an anti-g system, and On-Board Oxygen Generating System (OBOGS) help round out its capabilities; and the plane is still touted as being suitable for aerobatics, tactical flying, and night flying. All of these things mark a sharp step up from the HPT-32.

Overall, Pilatus touts the PC-7 as a trainer that can cover both basic and intermediate roles, at very low operating costs. Like the HPT-32s, PC-7s can be armed, and this has been done by a number of customers.

To win, Pilatus beat Korean Aerospace’s KT-1 and Hawker Beechcraft’s T-6C in the finals. Embraer’s EMB-314 Super Tucano armed trainer, Finmeccanica’s M-311 jet trainer, and Grob’s G-120 TP didn’t make it past the technical trials, and a HAL proposal for a locally developed “HTT-40 trainer” also lost out at some point in the process.

In May 2012, the IAF has signed a contract to import 75 PC-7s from Pilatus in fly-away condition, and they reportedly plan to have Hindustan Aeronautics Limited license-build another 106 in Bangalore. HAL has been having problems handling their workload, though, so India may have to decide how many future orders to source from Switzerland instead. The country reportedly plans to exercise a 37-plane option with Pilatus in late February 2013.

Some Indian pilots will train on the PC-7s in Switzerland, then return to India as trainers themselves.

Contracts & Key Events

PC-7 Mk.II: unfrozen
(click to view full)

April 15/13: I’m sorry, Danuj, you can’t do that. India’s Business Standard reports that the option for 37 more PC-7 Mk.II trainers is being stalled by HAL. The state-owned firm is demanding that the IAF buy 108 of their undeveloped HTT-40 trainer instead, in order to meet India’s requirement for a total of 183 basic trainers.

They’re leaning on defense minister Antony’s recent fetish for India-only production, in order to avoid “corruption” in defense procurement. We use fetish here in its traditional sense: a key component of animist magic that is performed as a placebo, in return for tangible recompense. To review:

After a long history of late or deficient performance on other aircraft programs, and a INR 600 million per trainer bid (vid. Dec 19/12) that got them thrown out of the competition, HAL has miraculously discovered that they can offer the HTT-40 for just INR 350 million per plane, a 42% reduction that’s suddenly cheaper than Pilatus’ proven INR 385 million figure. This will include development of an armed HTT-40, and HAL is also claiming lower life-cycle costs.

A 42% reduction suggests that either the original bid was overpriced, or that the new bid is a deliberate lowball, to be followed by “unexpected” price hikes once political commitment makes it hard to back out. That same commitment dynamic may be driving HAL now, after their corporate investment of about INR 2 billion (about $36 million) to develop the HTT-40. The corresponding life cycle cost estimates are also likely to be too low, and experience shows that truthful figures require a flying fleet like Pilatus’, not paper promises without a prototype.

Meanwhile, the Indian Air Force will find it difficult to train its pilots, because HAL is lobbying to block planes the IAF says it needs, by making promises it almost certainly can’t keep. All in return for money and political favors. Which, somehow, doesn’t qualify as corruption.

March 13/13: IJT. In a Parliamentary reply, Minister of State for Defence Shri Jitendra Singh says that:

“Indian Air Force (IAF) has signed two contracts with HAL for delivery of 12 Limited Series Production Intermediate Jet Trainer (IJT) aircraft and 73 Series Production IJT aircraft. The IJT aircraft is presently targeted to be inducted in IAF in the year 2014 onwards.”

That would make 15 years from initial contract to induction for HAL’s HJT-36 Sitara intermediate trainer jet, which is already late. Even so, 2014 gives the IAF a very narrow window in which to shelve this project, and they probably won’t. The opportunity, such as it is, is that the IAF envisaged possible orders of 200-250 IJTs, for use in “Intermediate Stage 2″ training. That leaves about 115-160 aircraft as potential pickups for a rival like the PC-7 MkII, if HAL’s IJT runs into delivery, service, or cost issues.

Feb 4/13: Options clause. India’s Business Standard reports the IAF will exercise their contract option to buy another 37 Pilatus trainers at the same price, which is reportedly INR 300 million per plane. This brings India’s Swiss-made order total to 112:

“A top IAF official told Business Standard, “The contract for 75 Pilatus trainers, which was signed last year, includes an options clause that allows India to order an extra 50 per cent of the contracted number of aircraft (i.e. 37 trainers) at the same price as the first 75 trainers. We will exercise this options clause this month.”

Dec 19/12: HHT-40s and IJTs. India’s Business Standard reports that HAL had also been a contender in the basic trainer competition, with a proposal to develop and build 106 “Hindustan Turbo Trainer – 40″ (HTT-40) planes. The problem was that HAL was about twice as expensive as foreign-built aircraft, at Rs 60 crore per plane. Basic trainers aren’t exactly a strategically vital competency, so that was it for HAL. The paper even suggests that additional PC-7 Mk.IIs beyond the initial 75 could be manufactured in Switzerland.

The other question the paper raises involves the IAF’s missing solution for “Stage 2″ intermediate training, between the PC-7 and the jet-powered Hawk AJT. Pilatus touts their plane as being effective through Stage 2, but HAL continues its 14-year old quest to develop an Intermediate Jet Trainer. A 2011 crash has set that option back again, and more problems or unfavorable cost comparisons could earn the PC-7 another slice of business.

May 2-3/12: KAI aside. India’s Minister of Defence Shri AK Antony, in a written reply to Shri PiyushGoyal in Rajya Sabha:

“The proposal for procurement of Basic Trainer Aircraft for the Indian Air Force (IAF) is awaiting consideration of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS)… A representation submitted by M/s Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI), one of the bidders, has been found to be devoid of merit.”

Korean Air Industries (KAI) had alleged flaws in the selection procedure, on the grounds that Pilatus’ bid was incomplete. Antony’s written response sets off a flurry of reports, indicating that the PC-7 deal’s major bottleneck has been cleared. India MoD | Times of India | Flight International | Jane’s.

July 18/11: Indian media reports that Pilatus’ rivals are pressing the nation’s government to keep their aircraft in the race, but the IAF is sticking by its preference. The PC-7 Mk.II is said to be a lot less expensive than the most modern offerings like Pilatus’ PC-21. That was a key to its win, but it’s also a plane in wide use around the world.

Pilatus is conducting commercial negotiations with the Indian government, after which India’s parliament must approve the budget for the deal. If the billion-dollar, 181 plane deal is approved, 75 aircraft would reportedly be delivered by Pilatus in flyaway condition, with another 106 to be built by HAL in India. India Strategic | Flight International.

June 18/11: Contract details. The daily Le Temps reports that Pilatus Aircraft is about to sign a record SFR 850 million (about $1.01 billion) deal to supply 75 PC-7 MkII trainers to the Indian Air Force (IAF), which could eventually be extended to as many as 200 of the single-engined turboprops.

Pilatus declined to comment on the report that the trainer had been selected as the winner of offers invited by India in 2009 for a new trainer. Aviation Week offered quotes that stressed the absence of a deal, quoting Indian chief of air staff, Air Marshal P.V. Naik as sayibng that:

“Of the three short-listed firms from the U.S. [T-6], Korea [KT-1] and Switzerland [PC-7 Mk.II], the bid made by Pilatus has emerged the lowest… We have started price negotiations with the Swiss vendor for supplying 75 aircraft…”

Other contenders that didn’t make the IAF’s short list reportedly included Grob’s G-120 TP, Embraer’s EMB-314 Super Tucano, and Finmeccanica’s jet-powered M-311. See The Hindu | France 24 | Oman Tribune | Aviation Week.

Oct 2/09: An Indian Express report says that India is urgently seeking up to 180 trainer aircraft to replace or augment its trainer fleet at all levels, in the wake of problems with the lower-tier HPT-32 fleet and contract issues with its upper-tier Hawk AJT program.

The report adds that a plan to buy 40 additional Hawk AJTs has hit a roadblock, due to differences over price between BAE and the IAF.

Oct 1/09: HPT-32s. Plans to phase out India’s grounded HPT-32 basic trainer fleet will intensify India’s needs for trainer aircraft at all levels. Indian Express quotes Air Chief Marshal P V Naik:

“The IAF lost two experienced instructors in a fatal crash of HPT-32 this year. We have ordered an inquiry and a study on the aircraft, as we have had a lot of problems since their induction in 1984. We hope to use it only till 2013-14″…