Future Fleet: Australia’s F-35 Commitments – and Choices

RAAF F-35As: Fleet Plans

The RAAF has already ordered 2 F-35As, which are scheduled to begin arriving in 2018, but a recent GAO report indicates that they aren’t likely to be fully combat-ready by then due to software delays. Another 12 F-35As were approved to buy in 2009, but haven’t been placed under contract yet. These 14 aircraft are more likely to be ready by 2021, which is when RAAF No.3 Squadron is supposed to be operational.

It will need to be, because the last of the RAAF’s 71 modernized F/A-18AM/BM Hornets is scheduled to leave service in 2022. Additional F-35 orders will begin with 8 aircraft, probably in 2015, and continue over a number of years. All 72 of the F-35s are supposed to arrive by 2023, however, which suggests that 70 fighters will be ordered over the next 7 years.

The won’t be alone in the region. By 2023, Japan and South Korea are likely to have their own operational F-35A Squadrons. Singapore may have joined them with F-35Bs, depending on when their order is placed. So far, Australia has shown no inclination to buy F-35Bs, even though their 2 Canberra Class LHD ships will have the ability to operate those planes.

Finally, it’s worth pointing out that this is an announcement, not a contract. Furthermore, Australia’s budget is supposedly fixed. If F-35 costs remain high until 2020, and rework to correct faults found in testing becomes expensive, it will lead to cuts in Australian orders. Even so, the announcement is a clear sign that Australia’s Super Hornet fleet won’t be growing past 36 planes.

Australia’s May 2013 White Paper also planned an 18-plane order, if Australia wants to replace its Super Hornet family at or beyond 2030. Give F-35 operating and maintenance costs that are expected to be 40-60% more expensive than the Hornets, and Australian demographics, it remains to be seen whether Australia will be able to afford that 4th squadron.

Options & Decisions

The best plane in the world is just an observer, unless it has weapons that address the roles asked of it. Initial F-35As with Block 3F software will have a very limited set, including only AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, laser-guided bombs, and GPS-guided JDAM/ Small Diameter Bomb 1s internally. Shorter-range AIM-9X Sidewinder air-to-air missiles can be carried externally, at some cost to the plane’s stealth profile.

Australia uses both the AIM-9X (F/A-18F Super Hornet) and the comparable AIM-132 ASRAAM (F/A-18AM/BM Hornet) for air combat within visual range. Australia could decide that they want their F-35As to include stealth-enhancing internal ASRAAM missile carriage, as Britain’s F-35Bs will at Block 3F, but that would cost extra. At the same time, a May 13/14 DSCA export request indicates that Australia is buying hundreds of AIM-9X-2 missiles for use with their future F-35As, as well as their Super Hornets. AIM-9X and ASRAAM carriage aren’t mutually exclusive decisions, but buying over 500 AIM-9X-2s would make F-35A ASRAAM integration rather less urgent.

The AGM-154C1 JSOW GPS/IIR-guided glide-bomb is another extra-cost option, as it’s only confirmed for the US Navy’s F-35Cs at Block 3F. On the other hand, Australia can choose to leave JSOW’s anti-ship capability on its Super Hornets, and wait until the consortium as a whole pays to integrate JSOW on the F-35A.

Once Block 4 software is integrated in the early 2020s, it would add Kongsberg’s stealthy Joint Strike Missile for anti-ship and land attack roles, creating a significant increase in combat power. The missile’s unique selling point will be its status as the fighter’s 1st powered strike weapon, and internal carriage in the F-35 that allows the plane to maintain stealth. Norway is buying F-35As as well, which means that integration will be available as a defined, off-the-shelf add-on for Australia’s fleet.

The other big near-term decisions involve basing. This map from the Australian government’s Environmental Impact Statement lays it all out pretty clearly:

Contracts & Key Events

August 8/17: Australia has been cleared by the US State Department to purchase 1,952 ALE-70(V)/T-1687A Electronic Towed Decoy Countermeasures and associated support in a package estimated to be worth $108.7 million. The systems will go towards ensuring the survivability of Canberra’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter fleet, and work will be carried out primarily by BAE Systems. Australia has 72 F-35s on order with the US in a procurement deal worth $17 billion.

Feb 9/15: Maintenance contractors selected. Australia just recently sent their first pilot to be trained for the F-35, and now they’ve selected BAE and Tasman Aviation Enterprises as the firms charged with maintaining the fighters.

Nov 17/14: F-35Bs? The Australian Strategic Policy Institute issues a paper that looks at the viability of F-35Bs on Australia’s 2 Canberra Class LHDs, which are based on a Spanish design that expected to carry the fighters at some point. Australia is looking at this possibility, as part of its 2015 White Paper.

“Overall, this report concludes that the benefits would be marginal at best, wouldn’t be commensurate with the costs and other consequences for the ADF, and would potentially divert funding and attention from more valuable force structure enhancements.”

Their rationale is that operating the Canberra Class in escort carrier mode would be vast overkill for most missions, which are better served by the planned combination of EC665 Tiger ARH and NH90 helicopters. On the flip side, “…if the adversary were such as to merit strike operations against targets distant from Australia using the STOVL option, it would be quite capable of posing significant risk to the maritime strike force being used to project power in this way.” Removing much of the ship’s amphibious capability in exchange for 10-14 F-35Bs isn’t seen as enough airpower to both protect the ship, and offer useful offensive help.

Their estimated cost to try begins with about A$ 500 million in ship modifications to add deck coatings, beefed-up air traffic control, requisite weapon storage & maintenance facilities, etc. Helicopters would have to be added to the MH-60R anti-submarine force, alongside new airborne early warning helicopters for the LHD. Only then could one reasonably pay about A$ 5 billion to buy 2 squadrons of more expensive F-35B fighters, which have shorter range and more limited weapon carriage than F-35As. Finally, the semi-permanent nature of the modifications would force Australia to either depend on just 2 amphibious ships (uncoverted Canberra Class + HMAS Choules), or buy a 3rd ship. RAN non-availability during disaster season has been a recent sore point, which is why they bought Choules from Britain in the first place.

The best use we can envision for the F-35Bs would be as long-duration, no-refueling protection for the RAAF’s on-station KC-30B aerial refueling aircraft during long-range strikes. That probably isn’t enough of a draw, unless Australia also foresees hostile air bases being built on South Pacific island chains of interest within its sphere. If Australia wants to supplement helicopters on its LHDs, marinized MALE UAVs like the MQ-9 Reaper may offer a more useful set of capabilities, providing a new dimension of both general surveillance and support ashore. Sources: ASPI, “Jump jets for the ADF?” (incl. PDF link) | ASPI’s The Strategist blog, “‘Jump jets’ for Australia?”

Oct 1/14: 1st flight. F-35A AU-1 makes its first flight. In addition:

“Senator Johnston said that as a result of the Howard Government’s decision to join during the development phase, Australian defence industry has been awarded over $355 million in work…”

Sources: Australia DoD, “Minister for Defence – Australia’s first F-35A takes to the skies”.

July 21/14: EIS. The Australian government releases the F-35’s draft Environmental Impact statement. Noise has been an issue for the F-35, given the physical realities of its 40,000 pound thrust single engine. The Australian government doesn’t discuss absolute noise emission level comparisons, just says that:

“Generally, it is predicted that noise levels from the F-35A aircraft will be within a similar range or less than that of the F/A-18A/B Hornet aircraft. In the long-term, the introduction of the F-35A aircraft is predicted to provide a reduction in the number of noise events above the N70 rating (above 70 dB LAmax) and N85 rating (above 85 dB LAmax) in key populated areas surrounding the bases. Areas of Medowie (near RAAF Base Williamtown) are the only areas predicted to experience an increase in the number of noise events above the N70 and N85 ratings.

Existing noise mitigation measures for the flying operations of the F/A-18A/B Hornet aircraft will continue to be implemented for the proposed flying operations of the F-35A aircraft. RAAF will also implement additional mitigation measures for the F-35A aircraft to lower potential exposure to high level noise events by adopting a reduced thrust setting during climb and limiting afterburner use on departure, when operationally safe to do so.”

Lower-drag internal weapon carriage is supposed to help the F-35A take off without afterburner, though load limits haven’t been publicized for that. Sources: F-35 Lightning EIS Project | Australia DoD, “Executive Summary: Draft Environmental Impact Statement For Flying Operations Of The F-35A Lightning II” [PDF]. See also “F-35: I am Fighter, Hear Me Roar” for more coverage of the noise issue.

May 17/14: F-35Bs? Defence Minister David Johnston tells The Weekend West that Australia is still considering the F-35B:

“Now that aircraft is more expensive, does not have the range but it’s an option that has been considered from day one…. The deck strength is there [on the Canberra Class LHDs] for such an aircraft,” he said.”

That’s more open than Australian governments have previously been on this subject, and his assertion is true. Spain’s similar Juan Carlos I ship is likely to operate F-35Bs as substitutes for the Armada’s AV-8B Harrier II jump jets, if the country’s economy and military spending levels allow them to continue to operate fixed-wing naval aviation. Adding even 6 F-35Bs to a Canberra Class LHD wing would make a big difference to its power projection options, at a significant cost to helicopter support capabilities.

The question is whether this is far-future speculation, or something that could happen within the time frame of Australia’s impending 58-plane F-35 deal. At this point, nobody knows. It will depend on the terms negotiated for the contract, and whether the deal includes cost adjustment provisions for other F-35 variants and their associated equipment within Australia’s annual orders. It’s worth remembering that choosing F-35Bs comes with added requirements for new spare parts sets and training, new simulators, etc. The alternative is that this is blue-sky speculation revolving around Australia’s possible 18-plane F-35 order beyond 2030. In which case, it would mean almost nothing right now. Sources: The West Australian, “Jump jets on Defence radar”.

April 23/14: Australia announces their intent to buy another 58 F-35s, raising the RAAF’s approved fleet size to the 72 aircraft mentioned in the Labor Party’s May 2013 White Paper. The new Liberal Government is saying that the money has been reserved by successive governments, which isn’t true. It has been planned, and they’ve reportedly set a firm budget of A$ 12.4 billion, That will have to cover the fighters and spares, minus about A$ 1.6 billion for required support infrastructure at RAAFB Williamtown, NSW and RAAFB Tindal, Northern Territory.

This isn’t a contract yet.

Additional Readings

Background

• DID – Lightning Rod: F-35 Fighter Family Capabilities and Controversies.

• DID – Australia’s 2nd Fighter Fleet: Super Hornets & Growlers. They began as a bridge buy, but didn’t stay that way.

• DID – Kongsberg’s New NSM/JSM Anti-Ship & Strike Missile.

• DID – Australia’s Canberra Class LHDs. Which have the ability to operate F-35Bs.

• DID – F-35: I am Fighter, Hear Me Roar. The noise issue – F-35s have been measured at 3x the noise output of F-16s. Relevant to the EIS.

Regional Considerations

• DID – Japan’s Next F-X Fighters: F-35 Wins Round 1.

• DID – South Korea’s F-X Fighter Buys: F-15Ks and F-35As.

• DID – Indonesia’s Air Force Adds More Flankers.

• DID – Malaysia’s SU-30MKMs – Will a New Competition Bring More?

• DID – Singapore’s Steps: Modernizing the RSAF’s F-16 Fleet. F-35s could be next on the list, as the RSAF consolidates its air bases.

News & Views

• ASPI (Nov 17/14) – Jump jets for the ADF?. See PDF link for full report.

• Sydney Morning Herald (April 28/14) – Defence challenge: reconciling Australia’s warfare shopping list with reality. No, the money hasn’t been reserved. Argues that Australia will have to significantly cut its frigate replacement, armored vehicle, or new submarine plans to fund this. Early indicators suggest the latter.

• Australian DoD (April 23/14) – F-35As to transform Australia’s air combat capability.

• Australian DoD (April 23/14) – Prime Minister and Minister for Defence – Joint Media Release – F-35 Joint Strike Fighters to transform Australia’s air combat capability.

• Australian DoD (April 23/14) – Prime Minister and Minister for Defence – Transcript – Joint Press Conference.

• Australia’s state-owned ABC (April 23/14) – Joint Strike Fighters: Government to spend $12 billion on 58 more next-generation F-35s.

• Bloomberg (April 23/14) – Australia to Buy 58 More F-35 Jets, Scaling Back Initial Plan. It wasn’t this announcement that cut the buy – that ship sailed in the May 2013 White Paper.

• US GAO (Mach 24/14, #GAO-14-322) – F-35 Joint Strike Fighter: Problems Completing Software Testing May Hinder Delivery of Expected Warfighting Capabilities.

• ASPI (March 2014) – Taking wing: Time to decide on the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter [PDF].

• DID (March 9/09) – RAAF Kills ‘Over the Shoulder’ with ASRAAM. the AIM-9X-2 has similar capabilities.

Tag: ausf-35, f-35australia