P-8 Poseidon MMA: Long-Range Maritime Patrol, and More

Maritime surveillance and patrol is becoming more and more important, but the USA’s P-3 Orion turboprop fleet is falling apart. The P-7 Long Range Air ASW (Anti-Submarine Warfare) Capable Aircraft program to create an improved P-3 began in 1988, but cost overruns, slow progress, and interest in opening the competition to commercial designs led to the P-7’s cancellation for default in 1990. The successor MMA program was begun in March 2000, and Boeing beat Lockheed’s “Orion 21” with a P-8 design based on their ubiquitous 737 passenger jet. US Navy squadrons finally began taking P-8A Poseidon deliveries in 2012, but the long delays haven’t done their existing P-3 fleet any favors.

Filling the P-3 Orion’s shoes is no easy task. What missions will the new P-8A Poseidon face? What do we know about the platform, the project team, and ongoing developments? Will the P-3’s wide global adoption give its successor a comparable level of export opportunities? Australia and India have already signed on, but has the larger market shifted in the interim?

India’s Project 75 SSKs: Too Late to Save the Submarine Force?

India’s submarine fleet currently consists of 16 boats: 10 Russian SSK Kilo (Sindhugosh) Class, 4 locally built SSK U209 (Shishumar) Class, a leased nuclear-powered Improved Akula Class SSN from Russia (INS Chakra), and its own INS Arihant SSBN. Most of the Kilos have been modernized, but readiness rates for India’s existing submarine fleet sits below 40%, and the U209s will have trouble lasting much beyond 2015. With Pakistan acquiring modern submarines, and Chinese submarine building exploding, expanding India’s submarine fleet became an obvious national priority.

In 2005, India confirmed that it would buy 6 Franco-Spanish Scorpene diesel submarines, with an option for 6 more and extensive technology transfer agreements. Unfortunately, 7 years after that deal was signed, “Project 75” has yet to field a single submarine. A poor Indian procurement approach, and state-run inefficiency, are pushing the country’s entire submarine force toward an aging crisis. This DID FOCUS article covers the Scorpene deal and its structure, adds key contracts and new developments, and offers insights into the larger naval picture within and beyond India.

Eurocopter’s EC665 Tiger HAD Helicopters

Eurocopter’s Tiger had always had a very odd setup in that it came in two seemingly incomplete versions (HAP scout and HAC/UHT anti-tank), whose respective deficiencies severely limited multi-role flexibility and hence exports. The new Tiger HAD (Helicoptere Appui Destruction) variant fixes those deficiencies, and looks set to become the default version for new-build EC665 Tiger exports.

The HAD project began in December 2005, as the EU’s OCCAR organization for armament cooperation signed a formal contract in Bonn, Germany and set out initial procurement numbers for Spain. This was followed by the French DGA’s announcing the restructuring of its own 80-helicopter order, and each customer has made its own choices as the new variant has gone from concept to initial delivery.

CH-53K: The U.S. Marines’ HLR Helicopter Program

The U.S. Marines have a problem. They rely on their CH-53E Super Stallion medium-heavy lift helicopters to move troops, vehicles, and supplies off of their ships. But the helicopters are wearing out. Fast. The pace demanded by the Global War on Terror is relentless, and usage rates are 3 times normal. Attrition is taking its toll. Over the past few years, CH-53s have been recalled from “boneyard” storage at Davis-Monthan AFB in Tucson, AZ, in order to maintain fleet numbers in the face of recent losses and forced retirements. Now, there are no flyable spares left.

Enter the Heavy Lift Replacement (HLR) program, now known as the CH-53K. It aims to offer notable performance improvements over the CH-53E, in a similar airframe. The question is whether its service entry delay to 2018-2019 will come too late to offset a serious decline in Marine aviation.

LCS: The USA’s Littoral Combat Ships

Exploit simplicity, numbers, the pace of technology development in electronics and robotics, and fast reconfiguration. That was the US Navy’s idea for the low-end backbone of its future surface combatant fleet. Inspired by successful experiments like Denmark’s Standard Flex ships, the US Navy’s $35+ billion “Littoral Combat Ship” program was intended to create a new generation of affordable surface combatants that could operate in dangerous shallow and near-shore environments, while remaining affordable and capable throughout their lifetimes.

It hasn’t worked that way. In practice, the Navy hasn’t been able to reconcile what they wanted with the capabilities needed to perform primary naval missions, or with what could be delivered for the sums available. The LCS program has changed its fundamental acquisition plan 4 times since 2005, and canceled contracts with both competing teams during this period, without escaping any of its fundamental issues. Now, the program looks set to end early. This public-access FOCUS article offer a wealth of research material, alongside looks at the LCS program’s designs, industry teams procurement plans, military controversies, budgets and contracts.

For the Third Time, India Restarts Aerial Tanker Competition

By the early 2000s, India’s Air Force was expressing interest in buying modern aerial tankers, AWACS radar planes, maritime patrol aircraft, and other long-range, high-value aircraft. Things always take a longer time than they should in India, but the IAF is moving ahead on all fronts. IL-76TD based A-50EI Phalcon AWACS radar aircraft are arriving from Israel, as are has ordered Lockheed Martin’s C-130J-30 Hercules transports for its special forces and Boeing’s 737-derived P-8i Neptune for maritime patrol. A project is underway to develop a mid-size AWACS aircraft, and a competition will select a similar-sized maritime patrol plane to complement the new P-8is.

Aerial tankers enhance the capability of nearly every aircraft in this set, along with India’s fighter fleet. The IAF already operates Russian IL-76 transports, and 6 or 7 related IL-78MK “Midas” aerial tankers, but that won’t be enough. As the Indian Air Force inducts new high-value aircraft, the need for aerial refueling tankers grows along with them. In response, the IAF plans to buy another 6 aerial tankers. In order to add to its fleet, however, the IAF must first overcome India’s bureaucracy.

KC-46A Pegasus Aerial Tanker Completes Firsts

DID’s FOCUS articles cover major weapons acquisition programs – and no program is more important to the USAF than its aerial tanker fleet renewal. In January 2007, the big question was whether there would be a competition for the USA’s KC-X proposal, covering 175 production aircraft and 4 test platforms. The total cost is now estimated at $52 billion, but America’s aerial tanker fleet demands new planes to replace its KC-135s, whose most recent new delivery was in 1965. Otherwise, unpredictable age or fatigue issues, like the ones that grounded its F-15A-D fighters in 2008, could ground its aerial tankers – and with them, a substantial slice of the USA’s total airpower.

KC-Y and KC-Z buys are supposed to follow in subsequent decades, in order to replace 530 (195 active; ANG 251; Reserve 84) active tankers, as well as the USAF’s 59 heavy KC-10 tankers that were delivered from 1979-1987. Then again, fiscal and demographic realities may mean that the 179 plane KC-X buy is “it” for the USAF. Either way, the KC-X stakes were huge for all concerned.

In the end, it was Team Boeing’s KC-767 NexGen/ KC-46A (767 derivative) vs. EADS North America’s KC-45A (Airbus KC-30/A330-200 derivative), both within the Pentagon and in the halls of Congress. The financial and employment stakes guaranteed a huge political fight no matter which side won. After Airbus won in 2008, that fight ended up sinking and restarting the entire program. Three years later, Boeing won the recompete. Now, they have to deliver their KC-46A.

Airbus’ A400M Aerial Transport: Delays, Development, and Deployment

Airbus’ A400M is a EUR 20+ billion program that aims to repeat Airbus’ civilian successes in the full size military transport market. A series of smart design decisions were made around capacity (35-37 tonnes/ 38-40 US tons, large enough for survivable armored vehicles), extensive use of modern materials, multi-role capability as a refueling tanker, and a multinational industrial program; all of which leave the aircraft well positioned to take overall market share from Lockheed Martin’s C-130 Hercules. If the USA’s C-17 is allowed to go out of production, the A400M would also have a strong position in the strategic transport market, with only Russian AN-70, IL-76 and AN-124 aircraft as competition.

Airbus’ biggest program issue, by far, has been funding for a project that is more than EUR 7 billion over budget. The next biggest issue is timing, as a combination of A400M delays and Lockheed’s strong push for its C-130J Super Hercules narrow the field for future exports. This DID Spotlight article covers the latest developments, as the A400M Atlas moves into the delivery phase. Will Airbus’ 3rd big issue become its own customers?

Malaysia Ordering EC725 SAR Helicopters

Malaysia’s Bermana News reports that Eurocopter has received a Letter of Acceptance (LOA) from the Malaysian Defence Ministry for 12 EC725 Cougar medium search and rescue (SAR) helicopters. Negotiations for the EC725s had been suspended in October 2008, in the wake of the financial crisis; at the time, they were not supposed to resume until 2011. At the April 2010 Defence Services Asia (DSA) show in Kuala Lumpur, however, Defence minister Datuk Seri Dr. Ahmad Zahid Hamidi reportedly signed a letter-of-acceptance. Eurocopter is now working with the government to finalize the contract, which is expected to happen when Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak returns from overseas and the cabinet has a chance to meet and sign off on the deal.

The EC725s would replace the existing fleet of about 20 aged S-61 Sea King/”Nuris”, and are expected to arrive in 2012-2013. The reported deal figure is MYR 1.6 billion ($500 million). EC725s, and their civilian EC225 counterparts, are used by several countries in the region for SAR work. China operates a couple, as does the Japanese Coast Guard. Indonesia has ordered 2, and Taiwan is believed to have ordered 3 EC225s, with an option for 17 more.

Malaysia is also reportedly shopping for attack helicopters. Contenders mentioned so far include Eurocopter’s dedicated Tiger scout/attack helicopter, which also serves in Australia, and versatile S-70 Black Hawk utility helicopters than can be armed with advanced “Battlehawk” kits. Malaysia’s Bernama News | Defense World | Flight International | Singapore’s Straits Times.

Contracts and Events

June 3/19: Replacing S-61? Malaysia plans to replace its S-61 helicopter. Royal Malaysian Air Force chief General, Affendi Buang said that the service is looking at a range of helicopters including the EC725. However, Buang recently visited Russia to have a closer look at the Yak-130, which is another possible procurement for Malaysia. However, the acquisition of the lightweight aircraft is still not certain. Malaysia received the first S-61 in 1967. The Eurocopter EC725 is a long-range tactical transport helicopter specially developed to meet a French Air Force requirement for a helicopter for combat search and rescue operations. It made its maiden flight in 2000. The chopper can carry 28 troops or 12 stretchers. Alternatively it can carry 5,670 kg of payload internally. External payload capacity is around 4,500 kg.

Germany Upgrading Its CH-53G Helicopters

From 1971-1975, 110 “CH-53G Mittlerer Transporthubschrauber” derivatives of the CH-53D Sea Stallions were built in Germany. Though they share the CH-53E’s ability to lift medium-heavy loads, including up to 2 of Germany’s Wiesel armored infantry support vehicles, the CH-53Gs lack the 3rd engine and additional features of the improved CH-53E Super Stallions that have been operated by the US Marine Corps since 1981. A 2002 decision set a future force goal of 80 CH-53G and upgraded CH-53GS helicopters in the German Army, via modernization and life extension projects.

Which leads us to the current modernization project, even as Germany and France prepare their European Heavy-Lift Helicopter project for introduction around 2020. That effort is also surrounded by more urgent modifications, including one set that aims to create longer-range combat search and rescue capabilities:

• The Conversions [updated]
  
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]