Analyst firm Vector Strategy recently released a report that provides a forecast of materials required to meet the Department of Defense’s annual procurement rate of armor for military ground vehicles. The forecast covers a time horizon of 2006-2013 inclusive, and covers only of military ground vehicles purchased by the DoD for deployment by US military services, addressing the supply chain, the competitors, and the demand and prospect for various materials involved in that chain.
The firm projects that over $8 billion of material will be required, covering steel, aluminum, ceramics, composites, transparent armor, and more. They expect 2008 to be a surge market due to MRAP vehicle armor procurement, and EFP (Explosively Formed Penetrator, think “instant tank shell”) land mine protection for Hummers and MRAPs. They’ve clearly based their report on Pentagon plans, for the market is expected to sag a bit from 2010-2011 timeframe, then grow substantially by 2013 due to JLTV armor and a transition to higher cost non-metallic armor solutions. This depends, of course, on one’s assessment of what JLTV will become – if anything. In 2008, meanwhile, metals will retain a 2/3 share of the market by weight, with demand driven by light tactical vehicles (38% of material requirements), mine resistant vehicles (31%) and other combat vehicles (20%); the remaining 11% covers armor for medium and heavy tactical vehicles, and marine specific vehicles.
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“Material Requirements and Supply Chain Analysis of Armor Procurement for US Military Ground Vehicles” has more, including key questions answered, more detail re: scope of coverage, and downloadable items.