All Over Again: Egypt Looks Beyond the USA for New Arms
April 7/16: It is expected that the governments of Egypt and France are to sign a deal 
in mid-April for the purchase of weapons that include fighter aircraft, navy vessels, and a military satellite communication system worth $1.1 billion. The deal is expected to be signed upon French President Francois Hollande’s visit to the Egyptian capital Cairo on April 18. Rumors of what exactly will be sold include four new navy vessels from manufacturer DCNS, Two GOWIND corvettes, and a supply of military satellite equipment from Airbus and Finmeccanica group member Thales Alenia Space.
For most of the Cold War, Egypt’s military was a Soviet client. Every war with Israel was fought with weapons that were predominantly Russian. Russian pilots, air defense troops, and other specialists even fought in combat beside their Egyptian counterparts.
All that changed with the Camp David accords. Egypt slowly flipped, as the flood of American military aid dollars soon translated into a military whose high-end equipment was predominantly American.
Now, hostility from the current US administration after the Muslim Brotherhood was removed from power in Egypt is changing the relationship again. Egypt is looking beyond the USA for equipment, and the Russians are seizing an opportunity to begin bringing Egypt back into the fold. The Egyptian military’s stocks haven’t wholly been purged of Russian equipment, either, which adds plausibility to the idea. Is Egypt about to flip again? And who else is in the mix?
Un-Dependence
Egypt isn’t entirely dependent on the USA for weapons. The EAF’s fleet of 18 or so Mirage 2000s adds an important alternative to their 200+ F-16s, but it’s a drop in the bucket. Instead, their main alternative is an old standby: over 100 Russian MiG-21s, or their license-built Chinese J-7 counterparts.
On land, Egypt has almost 3,000 American M1 and M60 tanks, and M113-derivatives dominate their APCs and IFVs. On the other hand, Egypt also has over 1,200 Soviet tanks that have undergone upgrades to Ramses II (T-55) or RO-120 Mk.III (T-62) status, and a similarly-proportioned range of older OTR-60 family, BTR, and locally-designed Fahd APCs.
One finds this kind of pattern throughout their forces: higher-end American equipment, with a smaller set of older East-Bloc designs that remain in the force.
The good news is that this split makes a shift away from the USA possible. The bad news is that this isn’t the Cold War, and the Russians won’t just give everything away as military aid. Egypt can replace and refurbish some of its equipment, but a complete American military cutoff at any time during the next decade would be a serious military problem. Egypt can lessen its risks, and the government will, but it can’t remove them.
Ultimately, the question will be who pays for all this. Egypt’s ability to afford major weapons purchases is poor without outside aid, and civil stability is a bigger priority than flashy military toys. At the same time, Egypt has a limited window to find other major defense partners, and lessen its dependence on the USA before its older equipment ages into disuse.
Russia is looking to expand its influence in the Middle East, attaches no strings regarding how its weapons are used, and is also interested in economic opportunities like Egypt’s natural gas resources. That makes them a more natural geo-political partner than China, and their opportunities range from refurbishing older Soviet-era military equipment, to selling new. They’ll still want Egypt to show them the money, of course, but they’ll be flexible regarding exactly what form ‘money’ will take.
Contracts & Key Events
MiG-29M2
(click to view full)April 7/16: It is expected that the governments of Egypt and France are to sign a deal in mid-April for the purchase of weapons that include fighter aircraft, navy vessels, and a military satellite communication system worth $1.1 billion. The deal is expected to be signed upon French President Francois Hollande’s visit to the Egyptian capital Cairo on April 18. Rumors of what exactly will be sold include four new navy vessels from manufacturer DCNS, Two GOWIND corvettes, and a supply of military satellite equipment from Airbus and Finmeccanica group member Thales Alenia Space.
March 15/16: Egypt’s parliament has agreed to $3.7 billion in French loans which will be used to finance armament procurements from France. The money will go toward a variety of equipment and hardware, and will be spread across the Navy, Army, and Air Force. The modernization of Egypt’s armed forces is seen as an integral part of securing the often porous borders in North Africa, and fighting several Islamic militant groups with links to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in the Sinai Peninsula.
February 1/16: Egypt has received delivery of its second batch of three Rafale fighters bringing its total number to six. A special ceremony marking the delivery was held on Thursday with French and Egyptian officials in attendance. The importance of the Rafale acquisition was stressed by Army spokesman Brig. Gen. Mohamed Samir who said that they represent a “new addition to the armament system and combat readiness, and enhances the combat capabilites of the armed forces.” Last year’s contract will see Egypt acquire twenty-four of the jets from Dassault which also included a FREMM frigate from DCNS.
April 1/15: US caves to local security needs and pressures. The Obama Administration pledged $1.3 billion-worth of foreign military financing for Egypt, with the sale of a dozen F-16s, 125 Abrams replacement kits and 20 harpoon missiles cleared following the freezing of military exports to the country in 2013.
Sept 16/14: Contract. Alexander Fomin, the head of Russia’s Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, says that Russia and Egypt have initialed arms contracts worth $3.5 billion.
Attacks by Islamists linked to al-Qaeda have been rising in the Sinai, which will make any helicopter buys a big priority. Unfortunately, current reports don’t include details. All Rosoboronexport’s Anatoly Isaykin will say is that their orders portfolio now stands at $38.7 billion, illustrating Russia’s slow climb back into the top tier of weapons exporters. Sources: RIA Novosti, “Russia, Egypt Initial Arms Contracts Worth 3.5 Billion” | Reuters, “Russia, Egypt seal preliminary arms deal worth $3.5 billion: agency” | Al-Ahram Weekly, “Tilt towards Russia”.
Contract
(click to view full)
April 7/16: It is expected that the governments of Egypt and France are to sign a deal in mid-April for the purchase of weapons that include fighter aircraft, navy vessels, and a military satellite communication system worth $1.1 billion. The deal is expected to be signed upon French President Francois Hollande’s visit to the Egyptian capital Cairo on April 18. Rumors of what exactly will be sold include four new navy vessels from manufacturer DCNS, Two GOWIND corvettes, and a supply of military satellite equipment from Airbus and Finmeccanica group member Thales Alenia Space.
March 15/16: Egypt’s parliament has agreed to $3.7 billion in French loans which will be used to finance armament procurements from France. The money will go toward a variety of equipment and hardware, and will be spread across the Navy, Army, and Air Force. The modernization of Egypt’s armed forces is seen as an integral part of securing the often porous borders in North Africa, and fighting several Islamic militant groups with links to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in the Sinai Peninsula.
February 1/16: Egypt has received delivery of its second batch of three Rafale fighters bringing its total number to six. A special ceremony marking the delivery was held on Thursday with French and Egyptian officials in attendance. The importance of the Rafale acquisition was stressed by Army spokesman Brig. Gen. Mohamed Samir who said that they represent a “new addition to the armament system and combat readiness, and enhances the combat capabilites of the armed forces.” Last year’s contract will see Egypt acquire twenty-four of the jets from Dassault which also included a FREMM frigate from DCNS.
April 1/15: US caves to local security needs and pressures. The Obama Administration pledged $1.3 billion-worth of foreign military financing for Egypt, with the sale of a dozen F-16s, 125 Abrams replacement kits and 20 harpoon missiles cleared following the freezing of military exports to the country in 2013.
Sept 16/14: Contract. Alexander Fomin, the head of Russia’s Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, says that Russia and Egypt have initialed arms contracts worth $3.5 billion.
Attacks by Islamists linked to al-Qaeda have been rising in the Sinai, which will make any helicopter buys a big priority. Unfortunately, current reports don’t include details. All Rosoboronexport’s Anatoly Isaykin will say is that their orders portfolio now stands at $38.7 billion, illustrating Russia’s slow climb back into the top tier of weapons exporters. Sources: RIA Novosti, “Russia, Egypt Initial Arms Contracts Worth 3.5 Billion” | Reuters, “Russia, Egypt seal preliminary arms deal worth $3.5 billion: agency” | Al-Ahram Weekly, “Tilt towards Russia”.
Contract
April 22/14: MiG-35s? Israel’s Channel 2 is citing official sources in Moscow and Cairo who say that Egypt will buy 24 thrust-vectoring MiG-35s, which aren’t even scheduled to begin deliveries to the Russian air force until 2016. Agreement in principle reportedly took place in February 2014, but there is no contract yet, so details are still being sorted out. As one source put it: “UAC CEO Sergei Korotkov confirmed that negotiations are ongoing but said the number of aircraft Egypt will eventually get has been changing constantly.”
MiG-35s would give Egypt a formidable aerial opponent that is far in advance of the F-16C/Ds it has received from America. Key questions include whether the MiG-29’s human interface weaknesses have been adequately fixed, and whether Egypt can keep the finicky fighters in service if it buys them. The biggest question is how Egypt will fund that buy. Egypt’s treasury is a mess, and so they’re relying on funds from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Neither of whom are happy with Russia’s actions in Syria. Sources: Times of Israel, “Russia said set to sell its top fighter jets to Egypt” | Defense Update, “Egypt interested in buying 24 MiG-35s from Russia”.
April 22/14: Apaches unblocked. The USA will continue with the sale of 10 AH-64D Apache attack helicopters to Egypt, at the request of both Israel and Egypt thanks to terrorist activity in Sinai and Gaza. Pentagon spokesman Rear Admiral John Kirby explicitly said that they’re meant to bolster counter-terrorism operations in the Sinai.
The excuse is that US Secretary of State John Kerry will “soon certify to Congress that Egypt is sustaining the strategic relationship with the United States and is meeting its obligations under the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty.” On the other hand, the USA won’t be certifying that Egypt is taking “steps to support a democratic transition” until the coming elections are held. Which will keep the deal for 24 F-16s on hold. Sources: Al-Monitor, “Washington loosens Egypt’s arms embargo” | NTD.TV, “US Lifts Freeze, Will Deliver Apache Choppers to Egypt” | Times of Israel, “Egypt FM heads to US as helicopter delivery okayed”.
Feb 14/14: Deal? Russia’s Vedemosti reports that Egypt and Russia have taken the next step, and signed a $3 billion weapons deal. The MiG-29s were expected, and so was an unspecified air defense component. What’s new in these reports is the inclusion of Mi-35 attack helicopters, light weapons and ammunition, and “coastal anti-ship complexes.”
Russian anti-ship missiles like the SS-N-26 Oniks would be a serious threat to any navy operating near Egypt, but their missiles also have land-strike capabilities and good range. The question is why a country facing few naval threats would see such missiles as a priority, when they already have a range of naval systems that include platforms firing French Exocet and American Harpoon missiles. Sources: RIA Novosti, “Russia, Egypt Reach Initial $3 Bln Arms Deal – Report” | Egypt Daily News, “$3 billion arms deal already initialed between Cairo and Moscow: Vedomosti” | Agence France Presse, “Russia, Egypt nearing $3bn arms deal” | International Business Times, “Egypt in $3Bn Arms Deal with Russia as Putin Backs Al-Sisi for President”.
Nov 13/13: Russia. Ruslan Pukhov, a member of the Russian Defense Ministry’s advisory board and head of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies in Moscow, says that Egypt is seeking up to $2 billion in Russian weapons. The Russian defense and foreign ministers are flying people in to Cairo this week for 2 days of “military-technical” cooperation talks with Egyptian officials, and Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy confirmed the arms talks in an interview with Russia Today’s Arabic channel.
So far, reports have varied between $2-4 billion, which would need to be financed with a combination of Russian government help and aid from the Gulf States. Now that reporting is starting to involve Russian sources mentioning specific items, reports regarding the package on request from Russia include:
Fighter jets. 24 multirole MiG-29 M2 fighters, a package that could run as high as $1.7 billion. That’s a high price for MiG-29s, but Egypt would be a new user of the type. Russia would certainly be happy to see the UAC’s MiG group rack up additional orders, and follow-on buys might be cheaper. Egypt’s problem is that this would create 3 fleets (American, French, Russian) with very different weapon sets, aside from some Western/Russian overlap reported in its upgraded MiG-21s.
Air defense. The medium-range Buk M2 (SA-17, a much modernized SA-6) offers familiarity, while shorter-range Tor M2 (SA-15) and Pantsir-S1 (SA-22) systems offer command-guidance options that are already popular in the region. This isn’t the first time Egypt has reportedly discussed SA-17 and SA-15 purchases from Russia, and there are reports that Egypt already possesses 10 Buk M1 batteries and 16 Tor M1 firing units.
Anti-tank missiles. Egypt’s BGM-71D TOW missiles were assembled locally, and the Army still has a wide variety of Russian AT-2/3/5 missiles, as well as the high-end MBDA Milan II from Europe. Russia can offer very effective AT-13 Metis-M and AT-14 Konkurs missiles to supplant the TOWs at the high end, or more AT-5s if Egypt wants to fill in its low end with better gear.
Sources: Bloomberg, “Russia woos Egypt with biggest weapons deal since Cold War”.
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Nov 7/13: UAE. The UAE is looking to replace its fleet of 68 modernized Mirage 2000-9 fighters with even more modern planes: Dassault’s Rafale and BAE/EADS’ Eurofighter are reportedly their lead options. The question is what to do with their old aircraft. Dassault doesn’t seem interested in buying them back, but Egypt already flies Mirage 2000s, and the Gulf states (with the exception of Qatar) have stepped in as key Egyptian aid providers in the wake of America’s withdrawal. Buying the UAE’s Mirages would push the Egyptian fleet to 86, making it a viable high-end alternative to their F-16s.
The UAE is pushing, and Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi General Sheikh Mohammad Bin Zayed Al Nahyan is said to have told Dassault Aviation about his talks with Egypt. Will Egypt bite?
Egypt’s biggest problem is that it will have a very hard time affording these used fighters, let alone buying enough French weapons to equip them. Their next problem will be fending off American interference, but the UAE isn’t a country the USA can afford to offend. That hasn’t necessarily stopped the Americans recently, but the UAE’s position at the Straits of Hormuz, and quiet but extensive basing for USAF aircraft, are levers that can’t really be ignored. Sources: Tactical Report, “UAE: New efforts to sell Mirage 2000-9s to Egypt” | “UAE, Egypt, Mirage 2000-9s, Dassault and US intervention”.
Additional Readings
Background: Equipment
- DID – Egypt: More F-16s on Hold. The 24-fighter buy has presented major problems throughout, from reports of Chinese espionage, to concerns about the Morsi government’s belligerence, to post-coup issues and the suspension of deliveries. Egypt is the 4th largest F-16 operator in the world, behind the USA, Israel, and Turkey.
- Dassault Aviation – Mirage 2000-9.
- RAC MiG – MiG-29M & MiG-29M2.
- Air Power Australia – Kupol 9K330/9K331/9K332 Tor M/M1/M2 Self Propelled Air Defence System / SA-15 Gauntlet. Short-medium range SAM.
- Almaz-Antey Corp. – Buk M2E. SA-17 medium-range SAM.
- Army Technology – Pantsyr S1 Close Range Air Defence System, Russian Federation. SA-22 short-range SAM.
- Army Recognition – AT-5 Spandrel / 9K113 Konkurs 9M113
- Defense Update – KBP Metis M/ M1 Anti-Tank Guided Missile. AT-13.
- Army Recognition – Kornet-E 9M133 AT-14 Spriggan antitank guided missile system
- RIA Novosti – Yakhont Medium-Range Anti-Ship Missile. SS-N-26, aka. P-800. This is Russia’s standard modern missile for coastal defense batteries, but it represents a puzzling choice if reports are true.
- DID – Egypt Orders More M1A1 Tanks. The latest orders will boost their fleet to over 1,100, but those shipments were among the aid items suspended by the Obama administration.
News & Views
- Jerusalem Post oped (Nov 14/13) – Russia and Egypt. A view from Israel. “Egypt intends to take whatever it can get from both sides. The Russian reappearance in this region is entirely made-in-America and it was hardly unavoidable.” The same day, a different opinion column in the paper delivered a more negative assessment, marking “The demise of Pax Americana“.
- DID (Nov 17/11) – Derailed Denouement in Dubai: What’s Up With the UAE’s Fighter Deal? Still no deal, but Britain Prime Minister intends to push the Eurofighter aggressively during his upcoming trip, and success in Saudi Arabia and Oman is adding weight to the idea of the Eurofighter as a common GCC platform. Once it receives new planes, the Mirage 2000-9s will be retired.
- Kommestant (Nov. 2006) – Egyptian President Reinforces Friendship with Russia.
