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USAF F-16s, Iraq
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Iraq’s military has made significant strides in recent months, and the country is beginning to order more advanced military equipment to match. A slew of 2008 requests would spend over $10 billion to buy advanced armored vehicles, strengthen its national military supply chain, build new bases and infrastructure for its army, and even buy advanced scout helicopters.

That last purchase was significant, because an Air Force that had once been one of the strongest in the region is currently reduced to few dozen planes and helicopters, with no front-line fighters, or attack helicopters with precision munitions. The ARH order would be a significant step forward in aerial combat power, though they will be employed in the internal anti-terrorist battle rather than acting to secure Iraq’s sovereignty against neighboring countries.

That level of security requires the ability to control the air over one’s own country, which is why the USAF has always planned to remain in Iraq for a number of years as a guarantor. Anxious to complete its transformation and stand fully on its own, Iraq is pushing to begin flying its own fighters within the next couple of years – and is looking to buy American F-16s, rather than the Soviet and French fighters that made up Saddam’s air force. Recent statements from Lockheed Martin say that Iraq’s F-16 buy will be delayed – and recent Arabic reports indicate what the gap-filler might be…

• Contracts and Key Events
• Appendix A: Technology Options
• Appendix B: Political Background
• Additional Readings

Contracts and Key Events

Greek F-16D Block 52s
(via EPA: click to view full)

Nov 22/09: Al-Sabah reports [in Arabic] that Iraqi Prime Minister Talabani’s visit to France:

”....resulted in the signing defense agreements to train the Iraqi army and updated on 18 aircraft (Mirage F-1) and helicopters, and provide 300 scholarships,...”

Thanks to DJ Elliott for assistance with translation. The Mirage F1s were left in France for servicing during the 1990s, and apparently remained there due to arms embargoes imposed after Operation Desert Storm. The report offers no delivery date, but fielding Mirage F1s would offer Iraq a near-term option that would be difficult to fulfill with new-build aircraft.

Oct 20/09: Lockheed Martin CFO Bruce Tanner, discussing Q3 2009 earnings, reveals that Morocco and Iraq will be delaying their planned F-16 purchases “beyond 2011”. Q3 Podcast [MP3] | Q3 Earnings slides [PDF] | Flight International.

Sept 9/09: U.S. Air Forces Central have sent a team to assess how Iraq will maintain sovereignty of their airspace after U.S. Forces withdraw from Iraq on Dec 31/11. From Multi-National Security Transition Command – Iraq:

“During their visit to Iraq in early September, the Air Sovereignty Assessment Team met with the Iraqi minister of defense, the deputy commander of the Iraqi air force, the Iraqi air force staff, and U.S. advisors attached to Multi-National Security Transition Command-Iraq Iraqi Training and Advisory Mission- Air Force.

“The goal is to make sure Iraq maintains sovereignty by bridging the gap after we leave,” said Lt. Col. Daniel E. Rauch, deputy advisor from ITAM-Air Force to the Iraqi air staff for planning. “The accelerated schedule of the Security Agreement creates a period of time when Iraq does not possess the foundational capability to ensure air sovereignty or defend against the perceived threat.”

July 28/09: Looks like the timeline is indeed serious. An American Forces Press Service article says the US Air Force is sending an assessment team to Iraq to look at how the Iraqi military can field an air defense once American forces leave in 2011.

“The Iraqis probably will not be able to field advanced air-to-air manned interceptors by the time U.S. forces leave the country at the end of 2011, [Army Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, commander of Multinational Force Iraq] said. The U.S. team will work with Iraqi officials to look for creative solutions to the problem, the general said…. “We’re going to bring this team over here to try and get them some creative solutions that might allow them to have some capacity by 2011,” Odierno said, citing use of retired U.S. F-16 fighters or the purchase of aircraft from other countries as possible steps in the process.”

March 31/09: Reuters quotes IqAF head Lt. Gen. Anwar Ahmed as saying that Iraq wants to buy an initial squadron of F-16s in 2009, to help guard against perceived threats from Iran and Syria.

”[Ahmed] said he hoped to sign a contract for 18 advanced F-16s… “This is very important to us… It is a priority.” Provided funds are made available by Iraq’s Parliament, he said his goal was to acquire up to 96 F-16s through 2020. He cited the F-16C/D Block 50/52 models now being produced for Poland, Israel, Greece and Pakistan….

If the funds are freed and a deal is wrapped up this year, the first two Iraqi-piloted F-16s would be patrolling Iraqi skies by 2012, he said…. Ahmed, 54, said he had met a U.S. Air Force team in Baghdad on March 18 to discuss F-16 purchases and held follow-up talks with Pentagon officials on Tuesday. So far, he said, U.S. officials supported Iraq’s push to acquire the F-16.”

Sept 5/08: The Wall Street Journal reports that Iraq is seeking 36 “advanced model” F-16s.

Appendix A: Technology Options

UAE F-16F
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In September 2008, the Wall Street Journal’s use of the term “advanced F-16s” was generally interpreted to mean the standard F-16 C/D Block 50/52+ models requested or bought by recent customers like Chile, Greece, Morocco, Poland, Pakistan, Romania, Turkey et. al. Subsequent statements from the IqAF confirm this impression.

Those back-channel requests have yet to become a formal US DSCA request. Nevertheless, if recent F-16 sales are any guide then the likely cost of a new-build order, plus the associated spares, weapons, et. al. required to give Iraq’s air force a working fighter fleet once again, would be about $4-6 billion. That total could be reduced substantially if Iraq chose to buy an initial set of used F-16s, like the AIM-7 Sparrow missile capable American “F-16 A/B ADF” model bought by Jordan and Portugal, or used American F-16 C/D Block 30-42 aircraft.

The ultimate question is not one of money, however, but of time. A formal DSCA request, which has yet to be approved, is just the beginning of the process. Actual signed contracts can take anywhere between 30 days and 4+ years after the official request. Fighter aircraft delivery times add another 1-3 years.

That DSCA request will not come to pass without technology export approvals, and clearance for various F-16 types, equipment, and weapons sold in conjunction with the aircraft could become an issue for political discussion as well. Fortunately for Iraq, the F-16 is already flown by a number of countries in the region, including Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. These aircraft include a number of early F-16A/B models, plus a larger set of upgraded early models and F-16C/Ds. A request within those parameters should be uncontroversial, though requests for some air to ground weapons like GPS-guided JDAMs could become a separate issue.

Other F-16 variants exist in the region. Israel flies all F-16 models including its own F-16I, which modifies the F-16D block 52+ and adds a lot of Israeli electronics, equipment, and weapons. The UAE is a another exception, flying the world’s most advanced F-16s: the Block 60 Desert Falcon with built-in infrared surveillance and targeting, the AN/APG-80 AESA radar, and an engine upgrade, among other improvements.

Iraq would not request F-16Is, however, and F-16 E/Fs are unlikely to receive approval at this stage in Iraq’s evolution.

Appendix B: Political Background

USAF F-16, Balad AB
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While events can always overtake even the best of plans, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki recently told reporters that he wants all American forces to be able to leave Iraq by 2011.

Iraq’s request for F-16s certainly fits with that strategy. No country can remain sovereign if it cannot control its own air space, and having its own fighter aircraft available for missions would give Iraqis far more leeway to make independent decisions about the future direction, training, and use of their military.

Even if the US agrees to the sale as expected, however, that 2011 timetable would be a tall order. The USAF currently operates about 300 aircraft of all types in Iraq, supplemented by US Navy fighters and US Army transports and helicopters. That force will not be replaced by 36 F-16s – nor would such a force provide sovereignty insurance against Iraq’s neighbors. Indeed, the need for US government sale approval, training, and logistics stand-up means that the new Iraqi Air Force is unlikely to have any operational F-16s before 2010-2011.

If Iraq wishes to go beyond air-air roles for its F-16s and perform close air support as well, its air force will find that this is a demanding task all its own, requiring practice and combined-arms training and equipment in order to be effective. The USAF has deliberately slowed Iraq’s progress in this area for various operational and political reasons, and so there is no current base of expertise or equipment for the IqAF to build upon. If the IqAF wishes to be able to replicate the crucial role performed by American and British fighter jets in the Iraqi Army’s March 2008 Battle for Basra, therefore, or to support Iraqi troops in the even of hostile incursions from its neighbors, it will need to allocate even more lead time before it can be effective.

In the end, all of the relevant decisions will be political, rather than military, choices. At present, the odds are that Iraq will fly F-16 C/D aircraft in the Block 25-50 range, beginning around 2010. Alongside a reduced but still present USAF, which will remain in Iraq beyond 2011.

Additional Readings

• DID – T/A-50 Golden Eagles for Iraq The Iraqis are have submitted a formal request to South Korea. If inducted, these supersonic trainers and lightweight fighters would offer a significant boost to the 2011 IqAF.

• DID – The Penny Drops: Iraq Chooses its COIN Aircraft. The T-6A trainers will form the foundation of the IqAF’s training fleet, and their armed AT-6B version would give the IqAF its first fixed-wing close support capabilities.

• Reuters (March 31/09) – Iraq starts policing borders with unmanned planes. Type undisclosed. “Interior Ministry spokesman Major-General Abdul Karim Khalaf said the drones would police all Iraq’s borders and their first mission took place two weeks ago.”

• Defense News (Oct 16/08) – Iraqi Brass Confirm Interest in F-16s, Armed Helos