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Greek P-3B
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In May 2005, “P-8A MMA Could Become a Multinational Program” said that:

“European nations operating the P-3 may gravitate toward smaller maritime patrol aircraft …. Initial designs are even appearing in this class for executive jet aircraft equipped with maritime surveillance radars and related gear. Given that many nations’ maritime surveillance and attack requirements make the P-8’s range and endurance parameters unnecessary, it’s very possible that the EU’s moves will successfully bifurcate the global maritime patrol category into a broad class of nations who buy smaller aircraft, and an elite few with more extensive requirements who buy aircraft in the P-8A [Poseidon] class.”

Greece’s Hellenic Air Force currently operates 4 older P-3B Orion maritime patrol aircraft, which were delivered to the HAF from 1993 – 1996. They are reaching the limits of their airframe life, but options exist. The Orion has upgraded to P-3C designation, and has received a slew of updates since the P-3Bs were fielded. Efforts like Lockheed Martin’s reopening of P-3 wing production are even making it possible for countries like Norway to keep upgraded P-3 aircraft in service.

Greece has reportedly decided not to go this route, and at least EUR 250 million (abut $350 million) has reportedly been set aside for the winner of a 5-aircraft maritime patrol competition. Will the Greeks call on Poseidon once more, in order to protect their seas and mariners?

Greek MPA: The Competitors

ATR-72 ASW concept
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They will not. Greece’s naval focus is limited to the Aegean and the eastern Mediterranean, a sphere that is well within the capabilities of smaller and less expensive aircraft. A budget of about $350 million might buy 2 P-8As, plus spares and fielding support. It could not buy 5. In October 2008, Flight International reported that the budget for this purchase could increase, but:

“Boeing does not expect to offer its 737-based P-8A multi-mission maritime aircraft, but is promoting a Boeing Business Jet solution for a separate requirement for three VIP and presidential transports.”

An RFP is expected by the end of 2009, and viable candidates for the maritime patrol requirement reportedly include:

ATR-72MP (Alenia/EADS). This large twin-turboprop regional passenger aircraft has been developed into a maritime patrol variant that includes both integrated surveillance equipment and weapons carriage. Its use in civilian capacities creates an independent source of potential upgrades, troubleshooting, service networks, and trained personnel opportunities. In 2006, Turkey ordered 10 ATR-72MPAs; picking this aircraft would give Greece assured platform parity with its rival.

Be-200
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Be200 (Beriev). Greece buys a lot of Russian defense equipment, from armored personnel carriers, to hovercraft, to advanced anti-aircraft missiles. The Beriev jet would be an interesting choice because it is a true amphibian that can land on water. It also comes with a fire-fighting mission module, something that might offer an attractive supplement to Greece’s Bombardier aircraft after the infamous 2007 fires. Beriev does not advertise a full maritime patrol variant, just a search and rescue variant.

If the competition involved only search and rescue aircraft, the Be-200 would have an exceptionally strong case. The Greek request also requires anti-submarine, anti-surface, and surveillance duties, however, which may prove problematic for the Russian design. There have been reports of a Be-40/Be-42 variant for maritime patrol since 1986, but the project’s status remains uncertain. Given Greece’s requirements for NATO commonality, it would also be fair to characterize a Greek Be-40 as a new variant when assessing development and delivery risks.

C-295-MPA concept
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C-295MPA (EADS). Chile has ordered the C-295MP, a larger derivative of the CN-235MP Persuader that serves with a number of air forces. These aircraft offer good endurance in a small plane, and economical operating costs. The MPA version comes with an advanced surveillance system, and can carry torpedoes or Harpoon/ Exocet missile on underwing pylons. It does not appear to carry sonobuoy launchers.

The CN-235/C-295 family is in widespread use with a number of militaries as light transport aircraft, and versions of the smaller CN-235MP maritime patrol aircraft are already in service with 7 countries and the US Coast Guard. Greece doesn’t currently operate the C-235 family, however; it ordered Alenia’s C-27J as its light tactical transport instead.

P-99 MPA concept
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P-99 (Embraer). Like the ATR-72, Embraer’s offer leverages an in-service, popular civilian platform. An unarmed variant of this ERJ-145 based martime patrol aircraft serves with Mexico. Greece currently operates the R-99A Erieye airborne early warning derivative, and uses the ERJ-145 as a VIP transport. Embraer can also be expected to compete in Greece’s VIP/Presidential transport solicitation, where they will offer a potent challenge to Boeing.

A P-99 purchase would offer fleet commonality, and a jet solution offers greater speed and hence coverage at the expense of sustained low-level flight. Greece’s preferences in this regard will either tip it toward the ATR/EADS turoprop solutions, or give the Embraer aircraft a strong advantage. Embraer’s site touts the new P-99 variant as being capable of carrying weapons, and their concept art even shows sonobuoy launchers; but Greece would be the aircraft’s launch customer. That creates customization opportunities, but it also makes that first buyer the guinea pig and bill-payer for platform development and integration issues.

Oct 2008: Rejected (?)

S-3B shows sonobuoy
launchers, refueling pod
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The magazine also reports that Greece has rejected American offers of refurbished P-3s, as well as an interesting offer of second-hand S-3B Viking aircraft.

The S-3 is a twin-engine carrier jet whose mission is described simply as “sea control.” Their range fits well with Greece’s needs, and they come armed with advanced surveillance equipment plus the ability to carry torpedoes, missiles, sonobuoys – even refueling pods that let them act as aerial refueling tankers. The US Navy plans to phase out the S-3 by 2010, and is replacing them with MH-60R helicopters whose slow speed and reduced range will shrink the protective anti-submarine “bubble” around American carrier forces.

For Greece, the planes’ age and hard usage in carrier landings creates issues with spares, training, and operational costs. These issues combine to make an S-3B transfer unattractive as a long-term solution. If the current financial crisis pinches Greece’s defense procurement budgets sharply enough, however, a cheap enough S-3 transfer offer might begin to look attractive as a stopgap solution that would compete with P-3 re-winging and/or refurbishment.