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Patriot PAC-2
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A 2007 US National Intelligence Assessment [redacted NIE summary] believes Iran’s nuclear program has stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel are more skeptical. Intelligence is always a very uncertain and ambiguous exercise, and occasionally features assessments like the infamous NIE (National Intelligence Estimate) whose 1962 judgment was that there were no Soviet missiles in Cuba [1]. Uncertainty creates perceptions of risk, and perceptions of risk lead to behaviors aimed at reducing that risk. Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, Iran’s regular and Revolutionary Guards air forces remain relatively weak, and Iran’s ballistic missiles based on North Korean designs lack accuracy. Still, even a lucky conventional missile could create havoc in some Gulf states if it hit important oil-related infrastructure, or hit the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence.

Arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state’s real assessment of threats and priorities. It’s becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defense spending in recent years. Those expenditures cover a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list.

In June 2008, over $10 billion worth of December 2007 Patriot missile upgrade requests in the UAE and Kuwait shone a spotlight on the region’s new defense priorities. In December 2008, a multi-billion dollar Patriot missile contract from the UAE seemed to lock in that shift, and Kuwait is proceeding with upgrades to its own Patriot systems. Upgrades that have led to recent contracts, and sales requests…

Contracts & Key Events

The Persian Gulf
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Note that US DSCA announcements do not denote a firm contract. They are official requests, which remain before Congress for 30 days. If no positive action to block the Foreign Military Sale is successfully taken in Congress by the end of that period, the sale may go through once a contract is negotiated.

As DID’s Patriot FOCUS article indicates, Patriot Advanced Capability 3 (PAC-3) uses more advanced radar and electronics systems, coupled with a different, smaller missile that can be carried 16 to a launcher and use “hit to kill” methods. The older PAC-2 missiles are much larger at only 4 to a launcher, and use a fragmentation warhead with proximity fuze. Guidance Enhanced Missile (GEM-T) variants use PAC-2 missiles, coupled with select PAC-3 electronics, in order to improve performance and provide compatibility with PAC-3 batteries.

Nov 16/09: The USA’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency announces [PDF] Kuwait’s official request to purchase 4 years of Patriot sustainment, including repair/return programs, associated spare parts, modification kits, equipment, Liaison Office Support Services, and US government and contractor support worth approximately $410 million.

This depot test equipment contract complements a June 27/08 order placed with Raytheon to upgrade Kuwait’s Patriot system to Configuration-3. The June 2008 order covers the upgrades, while the June 2009 order adds the equipment and services needed to maintain the upgraded equipment. Work under this contract will be done at 3 Raytheon centers in Massachusetts – Raytheon IDS headquarters in Tewksbury, the Integrated Air Defense Center in Andover, and the Surveillance and Sensors Center in Sudbury; as well as at the Seapower Capability Center in Portsmouth, RI.

April 29/09: Raytheon names Roket Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S (Roketsan) of Ankara, Turkey as the sub-contractor who will integrate and test the control actuation system for the UAE’s Patriot GEM-T missiles. Roketsan will work with subcontractors throughout Turkey and the United States, coordinating and perform the major assembly work at its Ankara facility. The Raytheon release adds that:

“Roketsan is Raytheon’s first major trans-Atlantic supplier strategically located to support the 11 countries in Europe and Asia, including several in the Middle East, that have chosen Patriot as a key component of their air and missile defense programs.”

March 2/09: A $71.6 firm-fixed-price Letter Contract Modification contract to buy, install, and test 6 Radar Enhancement Phase 3 and Classification, Discrimination, and Identification Phase 3 modification kits for Kuwait’s Patriot radars.

Work is to be performed at Andover, MA, with an estimated completion date of Oct 30/12. One bid was solicited and one bid received by the Aviation and Missile Command Contracting Center at Army Contracting Command, Redstone Arsenal, AL (W31P4Q-07-C-0151). See also Dec 4/07 entry.

Feb 9/09: Raytheon announces a $246 million Foreign Military Sales contract from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), for Patriot system spares. The firm fixed price contract that is initially funded at $123 million, which represents the first delivery order awarded under a 5-year agreement for Patriot system spares. See Dec 17/08 for the main contract.

Work will be performed by Raytheon’s Integrated Defense Systems at its headquarters in Tewksbury, MA; its Integrated Air Defense Center in Andover, MA; the Surveillance and Sensors Center in Sudbury, MA; and the Seapower Capability Center in Portsmouth, RI. The contract will be managed by the U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Command, Redstone Arsenal, AL.

Jan 14/09: The Khaleej Times quotes General (Ret.) Khaled Abdulla Al Bu-Ainnain, the former commander of the UAE air force and now President of The Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) defense think tank:

“This in no way means that all these countries [in the emerging nuclear arc] are hostile to the UAE. But we cannot be blind to the risks and threats involved in these countries arming with nuclear capabilities. We may even become victims of cross-fires between different countries. Suppose Israel or the US attacks Iran, we could be caught in between. Our rulers have been acutely sensitive to these realities and are in the process building up a robust air defence system for the Emirates…. It is the ‘system of systems’ involving early detection, separation, elimination and the complete command control…. We had the potential to buy these missiles ten years ago. But we wanted to develop the human resources from within the UAE so that our people will be put in command. We want to defend the country through our own people, and not through outsiders.”

This would also help to explain the developments reported in “UAE Looking to Become a Regional C2 Leader.” The Khaleej Times report adds:

“Meanwhile, Federal National Council Member Ahmed Shabib Al Dhahiri told Khaleej Times on Tuesday that an estimated $100 million budget has been earmarked for UAE Nuclear Authority, which will implement the country’s peaceful nuclear programme.”

As the Times reported, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Algeria, and Morocco all confirmed their intent to begin nuclear power programs to the IAEA in 2006; the UAE and Tunisia were listed as possible additions. This announcement would appear to make the UAE program a certainty.

Patriot
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Dec 17/08: Raytheon receives a not-to-exceed $3.3 billion order for Patriot Config-3 systems, including Patriot GEM-T and Lockheed PAC-3 missiles, whole life support, and training.

Raytheon and teammate Lockheed Martin have worked with the U.S. and UAE governments during the past year to develop this agreement. The initial request was for up to 9 full fire units, with a stated maximum value of $9 billion. See the Dec 4/07 entry, and the Sept 9/08 Patriot order, for more background.

Raytheon established its first office in the UAE in 1983, and began delivery and support of the medium range Hawk Air Defense System to the UAE in 1987. The Hawk has also been upgraded to have limited ABM capabilities, but the addition of Patriot 3 systems represents a major advance in capability for the UAE. Raytheon multimedia release.

Sept 9/08: The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency announces [PDF] the United Arab Emirates’ request for 3 Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) Fire Units with 147 THAAD anti-ballistic missiles, 4 THAAD Radar Sets (3 tactical and one maintenance float), 6 THAAD Fire and Control Communication stations, and 9 THAAD Launchers. This would represent the first foreign sale of the THAAD system.

The UAE is also requesting fire unit maintenance equipment, the heavy trucks that carry the THAAD components, generators, electrical power units, trailers, communications equipment, tools, test and maintenance equipment, repair and return, system integration and checkout, spare/repair parts, publications, documentation, personnel training, training equipment, contractor technical and logistics personnel services, and other related support elements. The estimated cost is $6.95 billion.

The principal contractor is Lockheed Martin Space Systems Corporation in Sunnyvale, CA (THAAD), and the sub-contractor is Raytheon Corporation in Andover, MA (radar).

The UAE will be requesting industrial offsets, which will be negotiated with these contractors. On the other hand, the UAE “does not desire a government support presence in its country on an extended basis.” A total of 66 contractor logistic support personnel could be stationed in United Arab Emirates for extended periods, and additional training and major defense equipment personnel may be in the United Arab Emirates for short periods of time, not to exceed 24 months.

Sept 9/08: The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency announces [PDF] the United Arab Emirates’s official request for 4 Patriot PAC-3 missiles with containers, 19 MIM-104D Patriot Guided Enhanced Missiles-T (GEM-T) missiles with containers, 5 Anti-Tactical Missiles, and 5 Patriot Digital Missiles. These missiles are for lot validation and testing of the PAC-3 missiles notified for sale in the $9 billion Dec 4/07 request noted below, which would equip 9 full fire units.

The estimated cost of this sale is $121 million, as it also includes AN/GRC-245 Single Channel Ground and Airborne Radio Systems (SINCGARS Export), Power generation equipment, an Electric power plant, Trailers, Communication and support equipment, plus other related elements of support.

The principal contractors are the Raytheon Corporation in Andover, MA; and Lockheed-Martin in Dallas, TX (PAC-3 missiles). The purchaser intends to request industrial offsets, but these will be negotiated with each contractor. An in-country field office will likely be manned by 1-4 U.S. Government personnel who will remain in country for an undetermined length of time, and 65 contractor personnel are expected to be in country for an extended period for training purposes.

Sept 9/08: The UAE also submits DSCA requests for several hundred Surface-Launched AMRAAM missiles, and 78 complete AVENGER fire units which offer a mounted, networked platform and radar set that can accommodate very-short range Stinger missiles and .50 caliber machine guns. The SL-AMRAAM order provides all the equipment needed to mount the missiles in static positions, or on existing vehicles.

THAAD operations concept
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Sept 8/08: Reuters reports that the UAE is about to make an official request for THAAD theater-level ABM interceptors, and associated systems. If the request goes through, the sale could be worth up to $7 billion.

June 27/08: Raytheon Integrated Defense in Andover, MA receives a $76.5 million firm fixed price / cost-plus-fixed-fee, level of effort contract to upgrade 6 Patriot Radar Sets to PAC-3-Kuwait configuration. Work will be performed at Andover, MA with an expected completion date of July 31/13. One bid was solicited with 1 bid received (W31P4Q-07-C-0151).

Raytheon’s July 15/08 release refers to it as a $156 million contract, which indicates that the DefenseLINK anouncement covered the 50% initial payment, with the rest to follow. It also notes that the Kuwaiti upgrades are very similar to the upgrades the US Army is implementing under its “Pure Fleet” initiative. A 2009 release later reports the value of this contract as $148 million.

Dec 4/07: Kuwait already deploys Patriot PAC-2 missiles, alongside MBDA’s less capable Spada medium-range air defense system. The Spadas received a March 2007 contract for upgrades to Spada 20000 status, which will improve their effectiveness against aircraft and cruise missiles but will not give them anti ballistic missile capabilities. The PAC-2 has some ABM capability to go with its excellent capabilities against aircraft and cruise missiles, but it has limitations.

All that will change if the DSCA’s announced request [PDF] from Kuwait’s goes through:

• 80 PAC-3 Missiles
• Patriot GEM-T Modification Kits to upgrade 60 PAC-2 missiles
• 6 Patriot System Configuration 3 Modification kits to upgrade PATRIOT Radars to REP III

• Plus communication support equipment, tools and test equipment, system integration and checkout, installation, personnel training, containers, spare and repair parts, publications and technical data, U.S. Government and contractor technical and logistics personnel services, and other related elements of program support.

The estimated cost is $1.363 billion, and the prime contractor will be the Raytheon Corporation of Andover, MA. This is somewhat expensive, given the scale of the activities requested. One clue may be found later in the request, which hints that extensive support and maintenance work is part of this contract: “upon implementation of this proposed sale, two U.S. Government representatives and 25 contractor personnel will be assigned to Kuwait for a period of 3-5 years.” The DSCA adds that:

“The proposed sale and upgrade will bring Kuwait’s assets in line with U.S. PATRIOT assets, and ensure Kuwait maintains the ability to protect its borders. Kuwait needs this Air Defense System to develop an organic capability that will be responsive to hostile aircraft or missile threats upon its sovereign territory. The PATRIOT Air Defense System will go far in improving a current operational deficiency revealed during the Gulf War.”

PAC-3 systems and GEM upgrades have been available for some time since that period, of course, but it has risen to the top of the priority list now.

Dec 4/07: The United Arab Emirates, which includes Dubai, currently depends on Improved Hawk missiles, plus Croatale (older version, not NG) and Rapier missile systems for short-range air defense (SHORAD), and Sweden’s RBS-70 man-portable, laser-guided VSHORAD. This system offers good point coverage against cruise missiles and aircraft, and their 50 Russian Pantsyr-S1 missile/gun systems with revised and improved radars promise further improvements.

The Pantsyrs should be arriving by now, and full deployment is expected by 2009; they will likely replace the Croatale and/or Rapier batteries. Now the DSCA announces [PDF format] the United Arab Emirates’ official request for a high-end complement that adds ABM capabilities as well as improved air defense:

• 288 PATRIOT Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missiles
• 216 Guidance Enhanced Missiles-T (GEM-T)
• 9 PATRIOT Fire Units that includes:
  • 10 phased array radar sets
  • 10 Engagement Control Stations on trailers
  • 37 Launching Stations (4 per fire unit)
  • 8 Antenna Mast Groups (AMG) on trailers
  • 8 Antenna Mast Group (AMG) Antennas for Tower Mounts
  • AN/GRC-245 Radios
  • Single Channel Ground and Airborne Radio Systems (SINCGARS, Export)
  • Multifunctional Information Distribution System/Low Volume Terminals (Link 16)
• Plus trailers, generators, electrical power units, communication and support equipment, publications, spare and repair parts, repair and return, United States Government and contractor technical assistance and other related elements of logistics support.

The estimated cost is $9 billion, and the principal contractors will be Raytheon Corporation of Andover, MA, and Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control in Dallas, TX. The purchaser intends to request offsets, but agreements are undetermined and will be defined in negotiations between the purchaser and contractor.

The Patriot is a new defensive system for the UAE, and implementation of this proposed sale will require the assignment of U.S. Government or contractor representatives to United Arab Emirates. An in-country field office will likely be manned by 1-4 U.S. Government personnel who will remain in country for “an undetermined length of time.” A total of 26 contractor personnel are also expected to be in-country for “an extended period” to provide training.

Oct 30/07: “Saudis May Go Russian As France Loses Out” includes rumors that Saudi Arabia’s Russian military purchases may soon add S-300 and S-400 long-range surface-air missile systems with anti ballistic missile capabilities. The previous odds-on favorite was MBDA’s Aster 30 SAMP/T, which also has ABM capabilities but sports a shorter range.

Oct 16/07: The AN/TPS-59 is a theater defense class radar with a full 360 degree azimuth scan over a 740 km/ 400 nautical mile range results in a surveillance volume of 603 million km3. It has been used in tests to track and shoot down ballistic missiles, as well as conventional aircraft. See “Bahrain Receives TPS-59 Missile Defense Radar” for background re: the recent fulfillment of this 2004 contract.

End Notes & Additional Readings

¹ Angelo Codevilla, Informing Statecraft: Intelligence for a New Century, pp. 201-203. Toronto: Maxwell Macmillan Canada© 1992.

• DID (Dec 12/07) – UAE Looking to Become a Regional C2 Leader. Of course, excellent command, control, and communications is the foundation of any effective air and missile defense capability.

• Federation of American Scientists Space Policy Project – Estimated Surface-To-Air Missile Inventories

• Anthony Cordesman – The Military Balance in the Middle East (Google book preview)