Patriot PAC-2
(click to view full)

A recent US National Intelligence Assessment [redacted NIE summary] believes Iran’s nuclear program has stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel are more skeptical. Intelligence is always a very uncertain and ambiguous exercise, and occasionally features assessments like the somewhat infamous NIE whose 1962 judgment was that there were no Soviet missiles in Cuba¹. Uncertainty creates perceptions of risk, and perceptions of risk lead to behaviors aimed at reducing that risk. Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, Iran’s regular and Revolutionary Guards air forces remain relatively weak, and Iran’s ballistic missiles based on North Korean designs lack accuracy. Still, even a lucky conventional missile could create issues in some Gulf states if it hit important oil-related infrastructure, or hit the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence.

Arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state’s real assessment of threats and priorities. It’s becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defense spending in recent years. Those expenditures cover a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list. Now over $10 billion worth of Patriot missile upgrade requests in the UAE and Kuwait are shining a spotlight on the region’s new defense priorities…

Contracts & Key Events

The Persian Gulf
(click to view full)

Note that US DSCA announcements do not denote a firm contract. They are official requests, which remain before Congress for 30 days. If no positive action to block the Foreign Military Sale is successfully taken in Congress by the end of that period, the sale may go through once a contract is negotiated.

As DID’s 2007 Patriot FOCUS article indicates, Patriot Advanced Capability 3 (PAC-3) uses more advanced radar and electronics systems, coupled with a different, smaller missile that can be carried 16 to a launcher and use “hit to kill” methods. The older PAC-2 missiles are much larger at only 4 to a launcher, and use a fragmentation warhead with proximity fuze. Guidance Enhanced Missile (GEM-T) variants use PAC-2 missiles, coupled with select PAC-3 electronics, in order to improve performance and provide compatibility with PAC-3 batteries.

Dec 4/07: Kuwait already deploys Patriot PAC-2 missiles, alongside MBDA’s less capable Spada medium-range air defense system. The Spadas received a contract for upgrades to Spada 20000 status in March 2007, which will improve their effectiveness against aircraft and cruise missiles but will not give them anti ballistic missile capabilities. The PAC-2 has some ABM capability to go with its excellent capabilities against aircraft and cruise missiles, but it has limitations.

All that will change if the DSCA’s announced request [PDF] from Kuwait’s goes through:

• 80 PAC-3 Missiles
• Patriot GEM-T Modification Kits to upgrade 60 PAC-2 missiles
• 6 Patriot System Configuration 3 Modification kits to upgrade PATRIOT Radars to REP III
• Plus communication support equipment, tools and test equipment, system integration and checkout, installation, personnel training, containers, spare and repair parts, publications and technical data, U.S. Government and contractor technical and logistics personnel services, and other related elements of program support.

The estimated cost is $1.363 billion, and the prime contractor will be the Raytheon Corporation of Andover, MA. This is somewhat expensive, given the scale of the activities requested. One clue may be found later in the request, which hints that extensive support and maintenance work is part of this contract: “upon implementation of this proposed sale, two U.S. Government representatives and 25 contractor personnel will be assigned to Kuwait for a period of 3-5 years.” The DSCA adds that:

“The proposed sale and upgrade will bring Kuwait’s assets in line with U.S. PATRIOT assets, and ensure Kuwait maintains the ability to protect its borders. Kuwait needs this Air Defense System to develop an organic capability that will be responsive to hostile aircraft or missile threats upon its sovereign territory. The PATRIOT Air Defense System will go far in improving a current operational deficiency revealed during the Gulf War.”

PAC-3 systems and GEM upgrades have been available for some time since that period, of course, but it has risen to the top of the priority list now.

Dec 4/07: The United Arab Emirates, which includes Dubai, currently depends on Improved Hawk missiles, plus Croatale (older version, not NG) and Rapier missile systems for short-range air defense (SHORAD), and Sweden’s RBS-70 man-portable, laser-guided VSHORAD. This system offers good point coverage against cruise missiles and aircraft, and their 50 Russian Pantsyr-S1 missile/gun systems with revised and improved radars promise further improvements.

The Pantsyrs should be arriving by now, and full deployment is expected by 2009; they will likely replace the Croatale and/or Rapier batteries. Now the DSCA announces [PDF format] the United Arab Emirates’ official request for a high-end complement that adds ABM capabilities as well as improved air defense:

• 288 PATRIOT Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missiles
• 216 Guidance Enhanced Missiles-T (GEM-T)
• 9 PATRIOT Fire Units that includes:
  • 10 phased array radar sets
  • 10 Engagement Control Stations on trailers
  • 37 Launching Stations (4 per fire unit)
  • 8 Antenna Mast Groups (AMG) on trailers
  • 8 Antenna Mast Group (AMG) Antennas for Tower Mounts
  • AN/GRC-245 Radios
  • Single Channel Ground and Airborne Radio Systems (SINCGARS, Export)
  • Multifunctional Information Distribution System/Low Volume Terminals (Link 16)
• Plus trailers, generators, electrical power units, communication and support equipment, publications, spare and repair parts, repair and return, United States Government and contractor technical assistance and other related elements of logistics support.

The estimated cost is $9 billion, and the principal contractors will be Raytheon Corporation of Andover, MA, and Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control in Dallas, TX. The purchaser intends to request offsets, but agreements are undetermined and will be defined in negotiations between the purchaser and contractor.

The Patriot is a new defensive system for the UAE, and implementation of this proposed sale will require the assignment of U.S. Government or contractor representatives to United Arab Emirates. An in-country field office will likely be manned by 1-4 U.S. Government personnel who will remain in country for “an undetermined length of time.” A total of 26 contractor personnel are also expected to be in-country for “an extended period” to provide training.

Oct 30/07: “Saudis May Go Russian As France Loses Out” includes rumors that Saudi Arabia’s Russian military purchases may soon add S-300 and S-400 long-range surface-air missile systems with anti ballistic missile capabilities. The previous odds-on favorite was MBDA’s Aster 30 SAMP/T, which also has ABM capabilities but sports a shorter range.

Oct 16/07: The AN/TPS-59 is a theater defense class radar with a full 360 degree azimuth scan over a 740 km/ 400 nautical mile range results in a surveillance volume of 603 million km3. It has been used in tests to track and shoot down ballistic missiles, as well as conventional aircraft. See “Bahrain Receives TPS-59 Missile Defense Radar” for background re: the recent fulfillment of this 2004 contract.

End Notes & Additional Readings

¹ Angelo Codevilla, Informing Statecraft: Intelligence for a New Century, pp. 201-203. Toronto: Maxwell Macmillan Canada© 1992.

• Federation of American Scientists Space Policy Project – Estimated Surface-To-Air Missile Inventories

• Anthony Cordesman – The Military Balance in the Middle East (Google book preview)