Nothing but Netz: Used F-16s for Romania

The MiG-21 is reaching the end of its service life, but it can still be effective for a little while. India’s refurbished MiG-21 ‘Bisons’ combined Russian, Indian and Israeli technology to excellent effect in the COPE India 2004 and 2005 exercises with the USAF, and there’s even a Russian-Israeli MiG-21 2000 variant that exists for general sale. Israeli companies have made something of a specialty of refurbishing both Western and Soviet fighters with modern radars, avionics, and Israeli weapons like the Python air-air missile, giving the systems new life. An all-Israeli effort was undertaken for Romania, in order to create Romania’s MiG-21 ‘Lancers’ via upgrade.

The question is what comes next. In 2005, rumor had it that the success of those efforts had led to a more ambitious fighter deal between Israel and Romania for upgraded Cheyl Ha’Avir F-16A/Bs – but that deal appears to have fizzled for unknown reasons. Other firms entered the mix, including Saab with its JAS-39 Gripen and, surprisingly, EADS’ Eurofighter. Then the USA appeared to have flown away with the fighter replacement deal – but, not so fast.

Romania, Romania, Romania: Drivers and Options

Romania faced 3 big questions in deciding on its fighter purchase. They involved capability, finances, and foreign approvals. To those 3, add a pair of elements that are almost always present in fighter purchases: politics, and vanity.

Capability is always a concern, and Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia has only heightened regional concerns. While the Russian Air force is a shadow of its former self, so are the air forces of its former Warsaw Pact satraps. Unfortunately, modern NATO-compatible fighters are very costly, and East Bloc countries in particular feel the lack of any fielded low-budget options to fill the niche once occupied by planes like the MiG-21 and F-5. The natural response is to adopt NATO’s classic approach, and attempt to compete on quality.

Given the presence of upgraded SU-27 family fighters in the Russian fleet, competing on quality isn’t easy. Purchases from Russia itself, such as modern MiG-29/35 aircraft, offer another option. If the most likely future threat is seen as coming from Russia, however, that isn’t a viable option.

The Czech Republic and Hungary’s choice of 10-year leases for 14 fourth-generation JAS-39 Gripen aircraft illustrate one possible solution.

In 2005, reports in the Israeli press indicated that Romania might go another route, and spend $150 million to purchase “dozens” of used F-16A Netz (Hebrew for “Falcon”) aircraft from Israel. Israeli contractor Elbit Systems would be the lead contractor for an Israeli deal, overseeing their refurbishment and upgrade with newer Israeli electronics.

The one potential downside to the F-16 was the necessity of US approval for technology transfer or sale. Israel would be transferring the weapons themselves, not just maintaining them with Israeli technology. Formal American approval has always been required for any transfer of US equipment to 3rd countries. Fortunately, sales to a new NATO member like Romania were unlikely to attract any vetoes from the USA. Indeed, rumors in 2005 said that Romania had been given a provisional green light by the American government and by Lockheed Martin.

That approach seemed to be a good deal for both parties, and became a template for Romania’s search: buy a used version of the most widely-adopted fighter in NATO, with electronics that would be interoperable with NATO standards.

Evaluation & Options

In 2005, the talk centered on an Israeli deal. The reports noted that the Israeli Air force (“Cheyl Ha’Avir”) planned to phase out at least some of its 75 older F-16A/B planes as it introduces 102 new F-16I Soufa (Storm) jets, which incorporate all of the F-16 Block 52 advancements plus Israeli electronics and weapons. Reports claimed that a special committee had been set up to coordinate the various stages of what seemed to be a complicated deal.

So, what did the Romanians have to say?

The Romanian Ministry of Defense admitted that they were undertaking “an evaluation of the feasible alternatives for the replacement of the MIG-21 Lancer aircraft,” with a decision scheduled for 2006-2007 and a target date of 2010-2012 for initial operational capability. Thy also noted, however, that they were evaluating more than one type of plane. Defense Minister Atanasiu said that Romania needed at least 24 new aircraft, and added that a leasing system, auctions, or even participation in the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program were all under consideration.

Suggestions concerning the F-35 were probably just vanity talking. Romania has a proud cultural history, but its economy hasn’t yet caught up to the $70-100 million per plane cost of the F-35 JSF. The truth has always been that leases or used aircraft from other countries were Romania’s only realistic options. Its possible choices also tend to narrow down to the lightweight medium fighter segment, in order to achieve even the 24 modern fighters desired, in return for the kind of money the country had chosen to spend.

That left a small set of options:

* Used F-16 Falcons, from Israel or from other NATO countries, including the USA (chosen).

* Mirage 2000s, possibly used, from France.

* Leased JAS-39 Gripens from Sweden. These may be more expensive than used aircraft, but they are far more capable, may offer maintenance cost improvements, and come with industrial offsets and leasing options.

* Russian aircraft with upgraded Western avionics etc., much as Israel did for their Lancers. The MiG-29 is the only modern Russian fighter in Romania’s likely cost profile. Downsides include less NATO interoperability during operations outside of Romania, and extra costs per plane due to the required refits.

Within this group, the F-16 was always the most probable choice, barring a really excellent deal from Saab. After canvassing the Israelis, the Dutch, and even the Americans for offers, Romania finally settled on F-16s from Portugal in September 2012. The delays in getting to that point meant that the planes wouldn’t enter service until 2016.

Contracts & Key Events

June 19/13: OK. The Romanian government approves the bill for the F-16 purchase. Source: actmedia, “Defense Ministry signs contract for F-16 aircraft purchase”.

April 22/13: Slooow. Reports indicate that negotiations with Portugal will take until May 2013 (the deadline is June), but that dealing with the American bureaucracy will take until September 2013 – a year after Romania accepted Portugal’s bid.

Romania may also be interested in another 9 planes, which would bring their replacement fighters to 21. They currently operate 40 MiG-21 Lancers. China MoD News Channel.

Aug 23/12: Portugal? actmedia reports that the Romanian defense ministry has sent experts to inspect some of Portugal’s 45 F-16s, which were found to be in excellent condition. The PoAF is likely to be selling some of 201 Squadron’s Block 15OCU models, not 301 Squadron’s 20 upgraded F-16MLUs. On paper, that sounds an attractive solution for both parties, given Portugal’s dire fiscal position, and the fact the Dutch option is apparently no longer available.

This news item does not seem to have been confirmed in the Portuguese press yet, and online rumors that up to 12 Portuguese F-16s were available for sale have floated for years without substantiation. That latest statement is not available on Agerpres’ website – the national news agency cited by actmedia – though an earlier article from June does mention the Netherlands and Portugal as 2 potential sources for used F-16s. Romania’s actmedia re: rumors and inspections | Agerpres [in Romanian] | F-16.net re: Portugal.

June 21/12: Dutch deal? Radio Netherlands reports that:

“Romania is interested in buying 15 surplus F-16s from the Dutch airforce… On Thursday, the Defence Ministry confirmed reports that it is looking to sell equipment in order to raise funds… [as it] must shave a billion euros from its budget. The ministry is also in preliminary discussions with an undisclosed number of potential buyers, including Chile, which are interested in eight Cougar helicopters. Today, parliament will discuss the potential sale of 80 Leopard tanks to Indonesia. The ministries of defence and foreign affairs are in favour of the sale but a majority in parliament is against the transaction.”

Sept 19/11: All we can afford. Romanian President Traian Basescu tells Pro TV that Romania cannot afford to buy F16 fighters without a long-term financing solution, as they can only pay up to $300 million per year for the next 5-6 years. From Romania’s actmedia:

“As a NATO member, Romania must have 48 fighters compatible with the North Atlantic Alliance’s equipment. Whether they are F16 planes, Rafale or SAAB, what matter is to find a financing solution,” said Basescu.He added the United States proposed a regional project whereby several NATO members, such as Bulgaria, Croatia, possibly Hungary, would create a pool to support the purchase of F16 planes.”

Bulgaria has reportedly been offered US financing for a buy of 8-12 F-16 fighters, though terms were not revealed or confirmed. U.S. Ambassador Mark Gitenstein added that the regional pool option would involve new planes, extending Lockheed Martin’s production line. That’s certainly in America’s interest, as it would extend the F-16 production line, but it’s also likely to make the planes more expensive.

May 11/10: Eurofighter. The Eurofighter consortium and member firm Alenia Aeronautica chime in with an offer of their own: 24 used Italian Tranche 1 Eurofighters, plus up to 5,000 skilled jobs created by 100% industrial offsets and local technology transfer. The price, including logistics support and training, would be EUR 1 billion (about $1.3 billion), matching the price tag for used F-16s. Deliveries would take place between 2011-2012.

Italian Tranche 1 Eurofighters differ sharply from the other competitors in one crucial respect. Barring additional upgrades and equipment, they lack precision attack capabilities. In contrast, both the F-16 Block 25+ and the JAS-39 Gripen are full multirole fighters, able to target invading land forces, support Romanian troops on the ground, or conduct precision strikes against key enemy targets.

That same day, the Romanian Senate’s Defense Commission calls in representatives of rivals Eurofighter and Sweden’s Saab, stating that it wished to hear from Lockheed’s competitors. The decision to buy any fighter requires Parliamentary approval. Defense News.

April 15/10: Gripen. Agence France Presse quotes Jerry Lindbergh, a Swedish government official in charge of defense exports, who says that Sweden could provide 24 new “fully NATO interoperable Gripen C/D fighters, including training, support, logistics and 100 percent offset for the amount of one billion euros ($1.3 billion),” paid off over 15 years with low interest rates.

In essence, they’re offering newer and better fighters for the same price as very-used F-16s. The following quote from the Defense News report is difficult to take seriously in terms of future orders, but it does illustrate one of the political factors in play:

“Bucharest is also considering buying 24 new F-16 jets and later 24 F-35 jets, the defense ministry said, stressing this was part of the Romanian-U.S. “strategic partnership.”

March 23/10: Nothing new. At a Supreme Council of National Defense meeting, Minister of National Defense Gabriel Oprea presents a report, saying that Romania does not have the financial resources necessary for the acquisition of multirole aircraft. As such, the ministry proposes to buy 24 used F-16s, in order to replace Romania’s upgraded MiG-21 Lancers and their rising operations and maintenance costs.

Lockheed Martin personnel in Romania have reportedly confirmed that the aircraft with be F-16 C/D fighters, without mentioning the production year or their number of flight hours. The US DSCA request noted AN/APG-69v1 radars and PW F100-220 IPE engines as expected equipment, however. This strongly suggests F-16 C/D Block 25 aircraft, delivered between 1984-1986, and currently operational with American Air National Guard units.

Romanian sources say that the planes will be free, but there will still be costs of about $400 million for personnel training in the USA, $500 million for refurbishment and infrastructure improvements, and money to equip the planes with weapons. The total sum is estimated to be about $1.2 billion. The final draft of the agreement will reportedly be signed by the Romanian and American governments. Romanian Presidency release | Google translation of same || Mediafax Romania [in Romanian] | Hotnews.RO | Radio Free Europe | Reuters.

Sept 24/08: No decision. A Curierul National interview quotes Romania’s Defence Minister Teodor Melescanu as saying that no decision has been made yet regarding Romania’s fighter replacement. Key quotes include:

“…we do not have this money… ready to spend it when necessary. However, the executive has given us the possibility, by Emergency Ordinance no. 111/2006, which allows ministries to contract loans on the international banking market, we can employ such loans up to the limit of 2.38% of GDP… in a predictable financing line for the period 2009-2013. We also consider achieving these acquisitions with the participation of internationally prestigious companies, which we would attract in the modernisation and privatisation process of the defence industry.”

Indeed, the MiG 21s will deplete their flight resource by 2010-2011 and therefore we must absolutely start the programme of purchasing a multi-role plane… The issue is the purchase of 48 planes, the budget effort exceeding 3.5 billion lei… financed by foreign loans, using the mechanisms of Emergency Ordinance no. 111/2006… As there appeared some information about the purchase of second-hand planes, too, I want to emphasize that, personally, I think we are too poor to buy cheap, used things. I do not think that the solution of second hand devices is the best option and therefore I feel inclined to the purchase of new aircraft. And I insist on the human resource. We have valuable pilots and we cannot waste this value we have… As I have said, there are five models of multirole planes that meet the technical-operational requirements set up by the specialists of the Romanian Air Force. We are considering the F-16 plane… the JAS-39 Gripen… the Eurofighter Typhoon… the F18… and the Rafale [The F-35 was eliminated, since only operational aircraft were considered].

…To take a decision based on real and as complete as possible data, the Ministry of Defense has conducted information activities during the recent years… As a result of these activities the 5 types of airplanes I mentioned above were identified. But no decision has been taken yet.”

Oct 19/07: Eurofighter. China’s government-controlled Xinhua agency quotes Eurofighter’s program director for Romania Giuseppe Paoletti as saying that that Eurofighter is making Romania an offer of 24 Typhoon aircraft, with the first operational squadron provided for 2010 and the rest delivered in the 2010-2014 period. He also reportedly said that Finnmecanica of Italy was interested in buying the local Craiova-based Aircraft Factory, which may offer technical support and maintenance for the Typhoon warplane. The statements reportedly came at a press conference organized within the EXPOMIL 2007 show in Bucharest. Xinhua story.

At over $100 million per aircraft, the Eurofighter was not expected to be a major contender given its cost.

Oct 19/07: Gripen. Gripen International is also attending the EXPOMIL 2007 show in Bucharest, and meeting with senior government officials [release is in Romana].

2006: Gripen. Gripen International (Saab & BAE) introduces a Romanian language web site promoting the JAS-39 Gripen as Romania’s best choice.

Nov 25/05: Israel. DID’s article covering an Israeli RFI for new trainer aircraft notes another area of significant Israeli-Romanian cooperation: Romanian IAR-99C trainer aircraft with Israeli avionics that include embedded training capability. This could create an interesting barter angle to any potential F-16 Netz deal.

Oct 31/05: Nothing but Netz. Reports surface that Romania is discussing a $150 million buy of F-16A/B Netz (Heb. “falcon”) aircraft with Israel for “dozens” of aircraft. The Israelis could conceivably sell the used F-16s quite cheap, knowing that the refurbishment contracts would be lucrative. F-16.NET | Avianews.

Feb 4/05: Belgium? Romania is reportedly asking about used Belgian F-16s. F-16.NET report.