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Korea’s F-X Multi-Role Fighter Buy, Phase 2: The Race is Over

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Strike Eagle w. SLAM-ERs
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Back in 2002, the Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF) selected the F-15K advanced derivative of the F-15E Strike Eagle for its Next Generation Fighter Program. Under that $3.6 billion contract, Boeing will deliver 40 aircraft to the ROKAF beginning in 2006 and ending in August 2008. South Korea’s 2-seat F-15K Strike Eagles will be the first F-15s produced with the GE F110 engine common on many US F-16C/D aircraft, and they will also carry the SLAM-ER missile as their medium-range precision strike weapon. F-15Ks will not be equipped with the AESA radars found on some US F-15Cs and Singapore’s forthcoming F-15SGs, however, relying instead on the AN/APG-63(v1) radar upgrade developed in the 1990s for American Strike Eagles. See this RealVideo clip of the first F-15K in flight.

In May 2006, the Korean Overseas Information Service said that the ROKAF would purchase another 20 F-15K multi-role aircraft beginning in 2009 – but that report has since been qualified, debated, and finally superseded. Under the second phase of the F-X next-generation warplane procurement project, South Korea’s military plans to purchase 20 multi-role fighters via open bidding, with an investment of about 2.3 trillion won (currently about $2.4 billion). Things haven’t quite gone as hoped, however: the F-35 was excluded for having incompatible timelines, Dassault and Sukhoi didn’t attend the DAPA presentation after being named as candidates, then Eurofighter pulled out, leaving Boeing as the only submission.

DAPA has put out a second request for tenders in response, and Boeing was the only respondent. They closed the deal in April 2008, leaving only the ancillary contracts up for grabs. Northrop Grumman has just confirmed a contract for electronic warfare systems…

F-X to KF-X: The Best-Laid Plans…

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ROKAF F-4D Phantom II
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DII-QV

The ROKAF originally planned to buy 120 F-15Ks as its next-generation platform in order to replace its existing fleet of F-4 Phantom IIs and other aircraft. They had reportedly hoped to order another 40 this time around and bring their fleet to 80 aircraft in Phase 2, but had to settle for 20 more aircraft.

According to the May 2006 KOIS report, The $2+ billion plan was approved during a defense ministry meeting as part of its mid-term arms acquisition project between 2007 and 2011. President Roh Moo-hyun endorsed the plan.

In January 2007, Maj. Gen. Kim Deuk-hwan, director-general for aircraft acquisition programs in South Korea’s Defense Acquisition Program Administration, offered a more detailed briefing on Phase 2 of the F-X program. It would consist of 20 fighters, and the DAPA aims to seal the deal by February 2008 after 6 months of evaluations and price negotiations between June and December 2007.

“We’ll draw up a detailed plan for the procurement program next month and open the bid in March [2007] by identifying the Air Force’s operational requirements to foreign competitors concerned….”

Plans are still on the table for F-X Phase 3, however. According to a ROKAF report submitted to the National Assembly in 2007, DAPA plans to open bidding in 2011 for 60 “5th-generation” jets under a 5.4 trillion won/ $5.4 billion program, aiming to deploy the planes between 2014 -2019. Stealth has been mentioned as an important characteristic, and the F-35 Lightning II may be the only viable candidate – unless Korea decides to produce a stealth UCAV instead.

Under current plans, F-X-3 would then be followed by an indigenous KF-X (Korea Fighter – X) program to develop an indigenous 5th generation plane by 2020 and produce up to 120 of them. The cost of any such effort would be extremely high, however, and exportability questionable. A study released in 2008 casts serious doubt on the likelihood of KF-X’s survival, however; the program’s merger with F-X-3 appears to be a far more likely scenario.

Updates and Contracts

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F-15K Poster: apropos?
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Oct 19/09: The Chosun Ilbo reports that the F-15K’s “concurrent spare parts” availability rate was just 16% in 2008, compared to 70-80% for other ROKAF fighters. As a result, cannibalization of flying planes for spare parts skyrocketed from 39 cases in 2006 to 203 in 2007, and 350 in 2008. While the ROKAF has maintained the target 80% availability rate for the fighters, it means that 5-6 of the aircraft are unavailable at any given time. The figures come from documents the ROKAF submitted to Grand National Party lawmaker Kim Jang-soo, who heads the National Assembly’s Defense Committee. Chosen Ibo:

“Cannibalization is prohibited, but authorization can be given by the top echelon when there is no other option…. The Air Force cites a lack of forecasts of “components needs” because it claims to be in the early stages of deploying F-15Ks, and blames manufacturer Boeing for failing to hand over the relevant information.”

Oct 8/08: The Korea Times reports that Boeing has delivered the 40th and last F-15K from the F-X Phase 1 order.

July 28/08: Electronic warfare is an integral part of the modern combat environment, and aircraft that lack this protection can find themselves blind and defeated in very short order. Strike aircraft also need offensive jamming systems, in hopes of incapacitating their enemies.

Which is why Northrop Grumman Corporation has received a $74.6 million contract to provide 21 ALQ-135M electronic combat systems for the Republic of Korea Air Force’s F-15Ks. This is not a surprise, since NGC’s AN/ALQ-135 is the default system for F-15 variants around the world. AN/ALQ-135 offers a set of fully automatic, internally-mounted electronic combat system that can prioritize, manage, and defeat several enemy electronic systems at once. The latest configuration improves on earlier versions by replacing multiple processors with a system that adds memory and faster PowerPC™ chips, while using microwave power module (MPM) transmitter technology to reduce weight and boost performance. Deliveries will start in February 2010 and be completed by October 2011. NGC release.

June 20/08: South Korea is requesting additional air-air missiles and precision attack weapons for its F-15Ks: AIM-120-C7 AMRAAMs, AGM-54G Mavericks, JDAMs, Paveway II/IIIs, and chaff. Read “South Korea Buying Weapons for its new F-15Ks.”

April 25/07: A South Korean government panel approves a 2.3 trillion won ($2.3 billion) contract to buy 21 F-15K fighter jets from Boeing for the country’s F-X-2 program. The new aircraft will be delivered between 2010 and 2012. See Jan 21/08 entry for more re: 21 aircraft instead of 20.

The 21 F-X-2 F-15Ks will feature one key difference from the ROKAF’s first 40: they will use the Pratt & Whitney F100-PW-229-EEP extended life engine, instead of GE’s F110. Compared to the F100-PW-229, the new EEP variant adds design improvements, HUMS prognostics and monitoring equipment, and a slight boost to 29,100 pounds of thrust. The selection of different engines for the same aircraft type is unusual, but Aviation Week reports that Pratt & Whitney offered better pricing, part production sharing, and warranty options. Korea’s Samsung Techwin and P&W will be partnered to produce the 46 engines, under a under a $220 million contract. F100s also equip the ROKAF’s F-16 force, and having similar engines in the F-15Ks offers both maintenance commonalities, and insurance that problems with either engine will not ground the entre F-15K fleet. On the flip side, maintenance arrangements will be more complex for the F-15 fleet, and certain F100 related problems could now ground a larger portion of the ROKAF’s tactical air power.

The other difference F-X-2 offers is a different approach to the contract. Negotiations reportedy reduced the required industrial offsets from 85% in F-X to 33%, in exchange for better pricing, more spare parts, and more responsibility to the contractor. Pratt & Whitney release | DAPA re: standard offsets practices | Korea Times | AFP report | St. Louis Today | Aviation Week | Armed Forces International | Flight International.

April 25/08: Reports surface that Korea intends to arm its F-15Ks with new, longer-range cruise missiles. The ROKAF already uses Boeing’s Harpoon-derived SLAM missile, but is reportedly looking to buy another 400 missiles with a longer 400 km/ 250 mile range. Armed Forces International reports that no decision has been made, but The Korean Herald states that Korea has a very specific interest in Lockheed’s AGM-158 JASSM stealth missile. JASSM has been selected by the USA and Australia, and an even longer-range variant is under development. On the other hand, the program has been plagued with reliability issues; should the missile fail, other options in its class would include EADS’ KEPD 350 Taurus, Kongsberg and MBDA’s stealthy Storm Shadow.

Jan 28/08: KF-X follow-on looks unlikely. The current program was scheduled to be followed by a KF-X program to develop and indigenous 5th generation/ stealth fighter to replace all F-5E Tiger IIs and F-4E Phantom IIs. After a feasibility study in 2008, the project would aim to produce the next-generation jets by 2020, with the goal of building 120 planes in a bid to secure proprietary technology and strengthen the country’s medium level fighter jet capacity. The goal is reportedly a single-seat, twin-engine plane with about 40,000 pounds of thrust from its engines, with more stealth than the Eurofighter Typhoon or Dassault Rafale, but less stealth than the F-35.

Now the Korea Development Institute has delivered a report concluding that the economic and industrial returns would be weak in proportion to its cost: about 3 trillon won/ $3 billion, on a 10 trillion won investment. Papers quote foreign experts who estimate development costs of up to $12 billion. Korea’s Defense Acquisition Program Administration said the KDI report was for reference only, and the project decision would include other factors such as export prospects and technological capacity.

Options like partnering with EADS on a stealthier version of the Eurofighter, for instance, might lower development costs and offer an additional option. Nevertheless, the comparable cost of buying, for example, 120 F-35 Lightning II fighters in 2020 is likely to be half this sum, and the difference would be very noticeable within South Korea’s defense budgets. With F-X-3 likely to select the F-35 as a platform, a merger with the K-FX program and negotiation of an industrial deal seems more likely. Especially given South Korea’s demographic crunch, which will begin to bite by 2020. Chosun Ilbo | Korea Times.

Jan 20/08: The Korean Overseas Information Service reports word from a military source that Boeing may be moving the close the F-X2 deal by offering to deliver 21 F-15Ks for the contracted price, in order to replace the aircraft that crashed on Aug 6/06 due to pilot error. KOIS adds that:

“Korea has so far bought 30 F-15 fighters from Boeing under the contract for purchase of 40 F-15 fighter jets by the end of 2008. Seoul is currently negotiating with the U.S. airplane manufacturer to buy 20 more fighters.”Boeing might have made the proposal to express their thanks to the Korean government for its decision to purchase 20 more F-15 fighters,” a source said. “The Korean government may make a decision on the proposal late this month when the negotiations for the purchase of engines are to be concluded….The proposal by Boeing came as Korea revealed last year its plan to purchase from 2014 to 2019 about 60 fifth-generation stealth fighter jets such as the F-22 and F-35 of Lockheed Martin.”

For reasons explained below, the F-35 Lightning II is a far more likely purchase.

May 10/07: “Boeing is the only company that has submitted a bid proposal as of 3 p.m. today, the deadline for the re-invitation to the open bidding,” a spokesman for the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) said. KOIS report.

April 30/07: KOIS reports that Korean Air Co. has clinched a preliminary deal with U.S. aircraft manufacturer Boeing Co. to provide a wide range of maintenance and services, including training of military maintenance personnel, for Boeing-made F-15K fighters in the Republic Of Korean Air Force.

While this is the first time a private company has performed this kind of work for the ROKAF, they do have a solid base of experience. Over the last 25 years, the firm has overhauled about 500 USAF F-15s at its maintenance unit in Gimhae just south of Seoul.

April 27/07: South Korea’s Yonhap news agency: “Seoul eyes advanced jets beyond F-15K.” In which ROK ministers discuss their ambition to procure fifth-generation fighter jets such as F-22 and F-35, made by Lockheed Martin of the United States, to keep up with Japan and China. An excerpt:

“The U.S. Congress has yet to make a decision on whether to lift the ban,” Defense Minister Kim Jang-soo told reporters here. “We will have to look at its decision.” He said South Korea needs to stop falling behind Japan and build up comparable air force firepower…. In an interview with Yonhap News Agency earlier this week in Beijing, Kim admitted that the F-15 model is outdated in comparison with the F-22 and F-35. His comments were construed as hinting at the possibility that South Korea may delay the purchase of additional fighter jets.”

While F-35 procurement would be welcomed and might be a good timetable fit for a 3rd phase F-X around 2013-2015, F-22 exports would be a very different bowl of bulgogi. South Korea’s triangulation between North Korea and the USA has harmed ROK-US relations, and the country may now be considered a security risk by some quarters of the US defense establishment. Contrast this situation with Japan, whose larger sea lanes make a stronger prima facie case for a long-range, stealthy defensive interceptor force. Japan also worked to improve its diplomatic and military relations with the USA, stressing its reliability as an ally and collaborating on sensitive technologies like missile defense. Hence the current situation, in which exports of the F-22 can be discussed with some odds of success.

April 23/07: The South Korean defense procurement agency (DAPA) issues a public notice, once again inviting foreign bids again on its plan to procure 20 advanced combat aircraft by 2012. Boeing Co. of the United States turned out to be the only company that bid on the $2.4 billion contract, in response to the first request. The formal explanation session for the project will be held on April 30, 2007 at DAPA’s office in Seoul, ROK. Interested firms will have to submit bid proposals by 3 p.m. on May 10, 2007. KOIS report.

April 20/07: The US DSCA notifies Congress of South Korea’s request for 102 AIM-9X Sidewinder Missiles; Organizational and Intermediate-Level Maintenance AIM-9X spares; 26 Section-Level Shipping containers; Organizational and Intermediate-Level training; and AIM-9X missile and support equipment; and publications. The contract would be worth $55 million to Raytheon in Tucson, AZ.

“The sale of the Sidewinder AIM-9X missile system is being addressed in conjunction with the planned sale of additional F-15K fighter aircraft.” See DSCA release [PDF format].

April 18/07: A KOIS article quotes a defense ministry source to the effect that Eurofighter has informed the government that it will not participate in the project. “If Boeing submits a bid proposal by itself by today’s deadline, the Defense Acquisition Program Administration will invite bidders once again.” The source added that a second sole-source bid by Boeing would result in a contract award for 20 more F-15Ks.

March 11/07: KOIS reports that officials from the Boeing and Eurofighter attended a presentation meeting organized by the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) on March 9th. It covered an outline of the second F-X project and operational requirements for candidate aircraft.

The 2 bidders have said that they plan to submit their proposals to the agency by April 18, 2007 and the successful candidate will be chosen after test flights in February 2008.

Dassault’s and Sukhoi’s non-attendance may well be a sign that they will not be bidding. The KOIS report certainly treats the Phase 2 competition as a Boeing vs. Eurofighter competition from here on in.

Feb 9/07: Korea Overseas Information Service (KOIS) confirms that Boeing will bid its F-15Ks.

June 7/06: A ROKAF F-15K crashed after its pilots blacked out. South Korea resumed flights with its Boeing F-15Ks on Aug 21/06 following the investigation. Flight International report:

“The South Korean air force, which plans to enhance its biological training structure and introduce G-LOC (g-force induced loss of consciousness) training equipment…. A rash of G-LOC incidents which followed the US Air Force’s introduction of the F-15 and Lockheed Martin F-16 led to aeromedical studies that concluded the best prevention was training, particularly for pilots new to the aircraft…. The air force says the F-15K left Daegu airbase at 19:42. The aircraft discharged simulated air-to-air weapons at 20:11 but, while manoeuvring to respond to an opponent’s attack, the crew sent a “knock it off” signal at an altitude of 11,000ft (3,350m) – the aircraft crashing 16s later, at 20:12:19.”

See also Chosun Ibo story | Dong-A-Ilbo story.

Appendix A: Original F-X-2 Candidates

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F-35A head-on
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Back in November 2006, DID’s updated “South Korea to Buy Another 20 F-15K Fighters?” offered an analysis of the F-35 option being bandied about in various newspapers, and came to this conclusion:

“These factors make a Phase 2 ROKAF buy of F-35A Lightning II aircraft almost inconceivable for the 2007-2011 time frame; rather than opening the issue up for consideration, Lt. Gen. Kim Eun-Ki appears to have been saying “no” in an innocuous way…”

Fast forward to the January 17, 2007 Korea Times article, which quoted Maj. Gen. Kim Deuk-hwan as saying:

“Possible candidate fighters for the latest F-X project are Boeing’s F-15K, the Rafale of France’s Dassault Aviation, the Eurofighter Typhoon built by a consortium of European aerospace manufactures and the SU-35 of the Russian Aviation.”

The article adds:

“Kim, however, said the F-35 Lightening II of the U.S. Lockheed Martin would not be a competitor because the fifth-generation fighter does not meet the basic requirements of the Air Force regarding the number of engines, weapons-carrying capacity and combat radius.”

Not to mention delivery time. The F-35’s armament capacity and combat radius has been questioned in other strategic contexts, most notably by defense critics in Australia. Its single-engine status has also been raised as an issue in Australia; and may become an issue for Norway’s next-generation fighter program as well, given that country’s large over-water coverage requirements.

Given North Korea’s close overland proximity, South Korea could justify a set of requirements that would remove the two-engine and extended range qualifications. It could also justify weapons load requirements that would match up to the F-35’s mid-range capacity. It chose not to do any of these things, and so F-X-2 will proceed without the F-35 Lightning II as a contender.

Rafale Le Bourget 2005
Dassault Rafale
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The stakes for Boeing and Dassault are both high.

The F-15K is capable of air-to-ground, air-to-air and air-to-sea missions in day or night, under any weather conditions. It can carry 23,000 pounds of payload and has a combat radius of 1,800 km. A single aircraft costs about $100 million. A follow-on F-15K win would extend the F-15’s production line until mid-2011, giving Singapore up to two more years to go ahead with its contract option for 8 more F-15SGs. The production extension would also keep the possibility of orders from other US allies alive.

Boeing was the only contender to submit a bid by the F-X-2 deadline. whereupon DAPA once again called for international bids. There have been reports that if Boeing remains the only submission after the second call for bids, it will win the contract. Other reports say F-X-2 could end up delayed in favor of a 5th-generation alternative. Time will tell; meanwhile, Korean Air has received a contract to service the ROKAF’s F-15K fleet, deepening Boeing’s advantages.

Despite these advantages, a November 1, 2006 KOIS article discusses a growing sentiment within Korea to diversify their defense sources. Dassault’s Rafale is the most obvious candidate – it reportedly beat the F-15K by narrow margins in the F-X’s Phase 1 technical evaluation, and a Korean export order would be a major boon to the program as it continues to seek other orders from countries like India. The aircraft is a contender and known quantity, but Rafale’s narrow range of integrated weapons to date and complete lack of export orders (most recent loss: Norway) create an uncertain future for upgrades and additional investments. This is a major issue given the Korean F-X-2 fleet’s likely 20-30 year service life. Revealed corruption scandals, a promise never to do business in South Korea again, and corporate legal action against the government haven’t removed the Rafale from consideration, but they probably didn’t do much to help Dassault’s future prospects.

Dassault held to its promise, and did not attend the first DAPA information session on March 9, 2007. Nor did they bid on Phase 2. There is no sign that this status may change.

Eurofighter Typhoon
Eurofighter

EADS/BAE’s Eurofighter is acquiring more multi-role capabilities, and despite export setbacks its overall production and investment picture is good. Over 100 aircraft are now in service with various European air forces, and the plane is competing for additional orders in Norway, Denmark, and India.

Eurofighter offers a very strong air superiority choice that is widely believed to be superior to the F-15K or current SU-30 variants, along with growing secondary attack capabilities. According to KOIS, the Eurofighter lists its combat radius as 1,389 kilometers. It also offers a large and growing set of weapons options from American and European sources, and a crowded but proven national work-sharing structure.

Eurofighter GmbH was initially part of the F-X-2 bid process, but pulled out at a later date and did not submit a bid. It remains to be seen whether they will elect to incur further participation costs now that the ROK DAPA has re-issued its solicitation.

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COPE India 2004: SU-30K,
F-15C, Mirage 2000
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Sukhoi’s “SU-35” is the SU-27M, possibly with some additional upgrades. These aircraft have good range, large weapon loads, and performance that exceeds the ROKAF’s F-15Ks in a number of areas. To date, however, only 14 have been produced as testbeds. The Sukhoi’s avionics set will create significant difficulties for weapons integration with Korea’s overwhelmingly US weapons, but Sukhoi will choose its own entry if it participates and may decide to go with a variant of India’s SU-30MKI instead. This is arguably a more advanced aircraft than the SU-35, with thrust-vectoring capabilities and a mix of French/Israeli/indigenous avionics that could make integration of non-Russian weapons easier.

The SU-30 family has other potential attraction as well. Russia’s production agreement with HAL already offers a proven model for partial industrial offsets, and India’s indigenous avionics work creates a parallel set of opportunities for South Korea to insert its own locally-developed equipment. Geopolitically, Siberia’s treasure-trove of resources need foreign investment; warmer relations with Russia could offer opportunities in this area, and also create another diplomatic lever to use against North Korea.

These selling points, and the SU-30 family’s growing presence in a number of Asian countries, might make a Sukhoi bid more competitive than one might at first believe. Sukhoi did not attend the DAPA’s March 9, 2007 F-X-2 information session, however. It remains to be seen whether they will elect to participate now that the DAPA has re-issued its solicitation.

The winner, as always, will be based on a combination of the stated requirements, how well each aircraft’s strengths and weaknesses fit those needs, standardization and support considerations, and of course the international commercial-political pressures involved. In South Korea’s case, however, it will also be based on who elects to participate.

(Originally published January 18, 2007.)

Appendix B: Which SU-35?

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SU-35?
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As one of our readers noted, DID’s articles seem to describe two different SU-35s. One is a mid-life modernized SU-27 Flanker, but we have also covered a much more re-engineered “SU-35” variant with canards, thrust vectoring, et. al. that has been confused with (and possibly redesignated between) the SU-37. So… what do we mean by “SU-35”? By SU-27M, did DID mean the canard-equipped, ultra-modernized version?

DID explains the natural confusion regarding this fighter, and offers clarity and program news in “Russia’s SU-35: Mystery Fighter No More

Appendix C: Additional Readings, News & Events

  • Defense News (July 23/09) – South Korea Drops 5th-Generation Fighter Plan. That title is actually misleading. The Weapon Systems Concept Development and Application Research Center of Konkuk University is leafing the study, and the center asked Boeing, Eurofighter, Lockheed Martin and Saab about their views on the per-plane cost estimate of $50 million, as well as budget-sharing ideas and technology transfer. Their specifications, however, most closely mirror the F-22 Raptor, indicating that some reconciliation with reality is still necessary. The center will wrap up the feasibility study by October 2009, and DAPA is supposed to issue a decision on the KF-X initiative by year’s end.
  • The Korea Times (May 12/09) – S. Korea Seeks to Build Semi-Stealth Fighter. The ROKAF has finalized its KF-X specifications at an achievable level. Boeing is reportedly offering its F/A-18E/F as a starting point for development.
  • Flight International (Aug 6/06) – F-15K crashed after pilots blacked out South Korea resumed flights with its Boeing F-15Ks on August 21 following the investigation. “The South Korean air force, which plans to enhance its biological training structure and introduce G-LOC (g-force induced loss of consciousness) training equipment…. A rash of G-LOC incidents which followed the US Air Force’s introduction of the F-15 and Lockheed Martin F-16 led to aeromedical studies that concluded the best prevention was training, particularly for pilots new to the aircraft…. The air force says the F-15K left Daegu airbase at 19:42. The aircraft discharged simulated air-to-air weapons at 20:11 but, while manoeuvring to respond to an opponent’s attack, the crew sent a “knock it off” signal at an altitude of 11,000ft (3,350m) – the aircraft crashing 16s later, at 20:12:19.”
  • Flight International (March 19/02) – Dassault drops South Koreans over F-X scandal. “The French manufacturer says it has broken ties with local trading company Comet International, which had been one of its agents in the campaign. The move follows the arrest by military police of South Korean air force Col Cho Joo-hyong on suspicion of receiving an unauthorised 11 million won ($8,400) payment from Comet. A second air force officer, who worked with Cho on the F-X evaluation team, has also been arrested…”
  • Military.com Forums – F-15K/RoKAF Updates. An interesting and extensive collection of press releases (good) and republished articles (not good), covering F-15K program developments and Korean fighter program developments from March 2005 onward.

Additional Readings: Contenders

  • Republic of Korea Air Force – F-15K
  • Fighter Tactics Academy – Sukhoi Su-35. By Sergei Drobyshev, Head of the Regional Policy and Marketing Department, KnAAPO
  • Aeronautics.RU – Sukhoi Su-35. Caveat: most descriptions written in 1998-2002, but does bring in an interesting variety of sources.

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