The high end of the FAB’s fighter fleet, however, is inferior even when judged by regional standards. This might not be a huge concern if its neighbors possessed only short-range or limited capability fighters. Venezuela’s large defense expenditures, especially its recent purchase of long-range, 4+ generation SU-30MK2 fighters instead of more clearly defensive alternatives like the MiG-29, appear to have had the effect of triggering countermoves in several quarters. Even so, Lula’s government is careful to stress that this is not about an arms race. Defense Minister Nelson Jobim reportedly said in a 2007 public speech that:

“Brazil has well established, peaceful relations with all South American nations … one of our political priorities is economic and structural integration of the region … (and in 2008) we’ll also be strengthening our military links…. [Brazil cannot] neglect its defense. Therefore, we will increase our budget outlays and investment in the army, navy and air force by more than 50 percent…. [Brazil] is elaborating a national strategy defense plan that will determine each military branch’s mission and the equipment it needs for its activities”.

According to official figures made public on Nov 4/07, Brazil has requested $5 billion for its 2008 defense budget, with the possibility of raising it to $5.64 billion. In 2007, Brazil’s military budget was around $3.5 billion.

AMX light fighter
(click to view full)

President Lula da Silva’s administration has larger plans than just equipment recapitalization, saying that “we must overcome the lack of strategic planning and the technological dismantling of the last two decades.” The new National Defence Strategy group is designed to plan and execute the recovery of the “capability of our armed forces and the technological edge we once had in certain fields.”

Brazil maintained an impressive niche capability during the 1970s and 1980s in areas like tank and armored vehicle design, rockets, missiles, and of course aircraft. Unfortunately, in a world divided by cold war allegiances, there was often little room for a non-aligned 3rd party exporter. While some projects like the Tucano succeeded, and others like the AMX enjoyed qualified success, many promising projects saw limited exports at best, or became failed efforts.

The world is no longer divided into such camps, however, which may offer the Brazilian defense industry a second chance if it partners well and executes smartly. According to the main guidelines of the da Silva’s long term strategy, Brazilian defense industry should look to become a player again in the export of missiles, aircraft and other equipment. DID would be surprised if UAVs, with their long endurance surveillance capabilities and natural connection to Brazil’s aviation industry, didn’t also become a priority. The overal thrust of Brazil’s policies is certainly clear: “We must convince ourselves that we can become a world power this century,” says President Lula da Silva.

Military Review, 1999
(click to view full)

On the one hand, these statements remind one of the old joke that goes: “Brazil is the nation of the future – and always will be.”

On the other hand, anteing up with a 50% hike of the defense budget certainly displays seriousness, and Brazil has already set up a key partnership to develop the 5th generation A-Darter short range air-air missile with South Africa. A similar deal with Israel for its Derby/Alto radar guided missile is also expected at some point, and RFPs went out recently for a handful of medium transport helicopters (AW EH101, EADS EC725, Russian Mi-171V) and some attack helicopters (AW-TAI A129, EADS Tiger, Russian Mi-35M – which won).

The giant may be stirring again. A handful of fighters and helicopters, plus ships to patrol its coasts, won’t exactly make anyone a world power – and Brazil has an equally urgent and unfilled need for transport aircraft. Still, these buys may go a long way toward ensuring the nation’s ability to patrol and enforce its long borders. The right deals may also allow Brazil to re-establish its faded indigenous defense industry on the world stage.

F-X2: The Competition

Dassault Rafale:
Takeoff at last?
(click to view full)

For this second round of the FX competition, Dassault’s Rafale, Eurofighter’s Typhoon, Saab’s JAS-39 Gripen, and Sukhoi’s recently-unveiled SU-35 were all reported to be back in contention. All were expected to bid, and Boeing added its F/A-18E/F Block II Super Hornet. The FAB was also said to be interested in the Lockheed-Martin F-35, but the finalized nature of the Lighting’s industrial production partnership program was likely to keep the program from delivering the industrial offsets Brazil seeks. Meanwhile, a pair of competitors from earlier rounds faded out. Dassault’s Mirage 2000 production line was closing, and Brazil did not mention the F-16 as a contender – or advance Lockheed Martin’s F-16BR Block 70 offer to the finals.

Reporter Tania Monteiro of the Brazilian newspaper O Estado de Sao Paulo writes that technology transfer will be an essential part of any deal, and quotes influential Workers’ Party Deputy (PT is Lula’s party, Deputy = MP or Congressman) Jose Genoino as saying:

“France is always the better partner. Concerning Russia, everyone knows the difficulties and we don’t know what is going to happen in ten years so that we will be able to guarantee our spare parts. The USA, traditionally, does not transfer technology…. We want to seek the lowest price with the most technology transfer.”

If his assessment of Brazil’s priorities remains true, that country could represent a critical last chance for France to get some export momentum and success behind its Rafale, which has lost every competition it has entered thus far (Morocco, Netherlands, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, UAE, et. al.). To win, France will need to come up with a strong package. According to reports, the indications are that technology transfer will be more important than cost in terms of the final choice. Defence minister Nelson Jobim:

“Whatever the final contract it must be closely linked to national development, to help advance in the creation of a strong defense industry and therefore the technological edge we are requesting.”

Analysis: F-X2, The Competitors

RAF Typhoon & ASRAAM
(click to view full)

Some quick handicapping follows.

Eurofighter Typhoon (EADS/European – eliminated): Technology transfer may prove to be an issue, but price was always likely to be the biggest one. Eurofighters consistently sell for $110-130 million, which doesn’t square well with $2.2 billion for 36 planes. The most capable air-air choice in the group would provide unquestioned regional air superiority, but ground surveillance and strike performance is still provisional (Tranche I v6), or unproven (Tranche 2+). This has been fatal in competitions like Singapore’s, and may have proven to be a handicap here.

On the plus side, EADS Airbus offers a potent option for industrial offsets, and other EADS subsidiaries have footholds of their own. Airbus military’s A400M medium transport may create additional military interest in a long term industrial partnership, and EADS Eurocopter’s Cougar has just become the medium-lift mainstay of Brazil’s future helicopter fleet.

Gripen w. “smokewinders”
c. Gripen International
(click to view full)

JAS-39 Gripen (Saab/BAE) Saab offers strong industrial partnerships, and has a record of successful technology transfer agreements. The next-generation Gripen Demo program offers key industrial opportunities, along with a high-performance, affordable fighter. Gripens can operate from highways if need be, which gives Brazil great flexibility in deploying them. They would also give Brazil’s Air Force commonality with A-Darter air-air missile missile partner and political ally South Africa, which operates JAS-39C/Ds.

An AESA radar developed with Selex Galileo will also be offered, leveraging that firm’s successful history with Brazil’s F-5BR (Grifo-F) and AMX (Scipio) fighter programs. It’s an unusual combination of an AESA radar that can be mechanically scanned, offering more points of failure but widening the radar’s scanning cone versus other competitors.

These factors make Gripen a strong contender. Its F404/F414 engine offers the advantages of certain performance and a very broad customer base, but is subject to US export approvals if that’s an issue for Brazil. Another potential weakness may be the fact that each plane only has one engine, since Brazil combines vast over-water areas and even vaster wilderness areas to patrol. Those requirements usually translate into a focus on range and 2-engine safety, which have worked against Gripen in other competitions. While the other 2 Brazilian finalists are both 2-engine planes, most of Brazil’s other fighters (Tucano ALX, AMX, Mirage 2000) have just one engine.

X-35B STOVL
(click for landing)

F-35 Lightning II/ F-16BR (Lockheed Martin – eliminated) F-35 industrial partnership and technology transfer issues proved too difficult to overcome, so Lockheed is offering an F-16BR instead. It will probably resemble the F-16E/F “Block 70” variant being offered to India, with an AESA radar and built-in IRST/targeting sensors, an uprated engine, et. al. Both India and Brazil are fond of Israeli avionics and weapons, so those aspects are also likely to be common to both offers.

The F-16BR offers shares many of the Super Hornet’s perceived benefits and drawbacks: AESA radar and sensors and weaker American dollar on the plus side, poorer aerodynamic performance and distrust of America as an interfering supplier on the minus side. The F-16 cannot play the carrier-compatible card like the Super Hornet, and offers only a single-engine design. On the other hand, it does offer wide compatibility with other regional and global air forces, and its cost is significantly lower.

The F-35 would have offered a clear set of performance benefits over competing aircraft. No aircraft in this group could have matched the Lightning’s advanced surveillance capabilities, and surveillance is a big need in Brazil. The F-35B STOVL variant also offered Brazil the ability to operate from small, dispersed runways, and it would have been perfect for aircraft carriers like Brazil’s Sao Paolo (ex-Foch). Unfortunately, technology transfer issues were not the F-35’s only problem. Other barriers to an F-35 win included questions surrounding air-air performance against Venezuela’s SU-30MKs, the low likelihood of deliveries before 2016, and its single engine design.

Rafale (Dassault) Despite its past history of failure in international competitions, the Rafale has a lot of advantages in this competition. It can play the carrier-compatible card, since the Sao Paolo was once FNS Foch. Experience with the Mirage 2000 offers a common technological and training base, and France is seen as a good supplier who avoids political interference and makes good on technology transfers. The new RBE2-AA AESA radar being developed by Thales adds additional incentives. The one real negative is the Rafale’s narrow range of integrated weapons – but offers of partnerships in some of those areas might serve to hit 2 targets at once by playing the tech transfer card more strongly. Since Dassault really, really needs this deal, they should be very motivated on price. If they can’t make it here, they may not be able to make it anywhere.

Subsequent events would bear out these advantages.

SU-35
(click to view full)

SU-35 (Sukhoi/ Rosoboronexport – eliminated?) This was the aircraft Russia offered in the last round. Russian tech transfer is trusted. Lack of political interference is trusted absolutely. The aircraft itself offers an option that’s slightly better than the SU-30MK, but still presents itself to the region as an equivalency move. The price will be good, and Sukhoi has some support in the air force. On the other hand, service and parts delivery are almost guaranteed to be bad. That gives the FAB real pause.

One way around that is to offer licensed local production, which would also have to extend to the aircraft’s NPO Saturn engines and fitted avionics, in order to solve the Russian service problem¹.

F/A-18E, Parked
(click to view full)

F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Block II (Boeing) The Super Hornet shares the carrier-compatible card with Dassault’s Rafale, but compatibility with a smaller carrier like the Sao Paolo would have to be established. Boeing also shares a key advantage with EADS’ Eurofighter when it comes to industrial offsets, thanks to Boeing’s passenger aircraft division. The Block II version’s proven APG-79 AESA radar offers Brazil an attractive technology, and a weaker American dollar makes American exports more affordable.

On the flip side, the Super Hornet offers poorer aerodynamic performance than other competitors, falling behind in areas like maneuverability, acceleration, etc. This weakness is compounded by the fact that Super Hornets sell for about $75-90 million each, placing them above the Gripen, F-16 E/F+, and the SU-35, but below the Eurofighter. Concerns about America’s propensity to use arms export bans as a political lever add a final complication to the Super Hornet’s odds.

Updates and Key Events

Rafale: Takeoff!
(click to view full)

Oct 4/09: Brazil’s FAB confirms that revised bids are in from all 3 short-listed contenders, and Saab’s offer clearly has significant support from the Swedish government.

The additional offers are equally significant. Brazil will have the sales lead for Gripen NG in Latin America, with joint opportunities elsewhere. Saab would join the KC-390 program as a development and marketing partner, and Sweden will evaluate the KC-390 for its long term tactical air transport needs, as a future replacement for its recently-upgraded but aging C-130 Hercules aircraft. Saab also proposes to replace Sweden’s aged fleet of about 42 SK60/ Saab 105 jet trainers with Embraer’s Super Tucano, but it received a SKr 130 million ($18.8 million) deal in September 2009 to upgrade the planes’ cockpit systems, and current Swedish plans would see the SK60s continue in service until mid-2017. FAB release [in Portuguese] | Gripen International release.

Sept 29/09: Embraer release [PDF format]:

“Regarding the article published in the Valor Econômico newspaper, dated September 28, 2009, Embraer clarifies that it is not directly participating in the selection process of the new F-X2 fighter for the Brazilian Air Force and, contrary to what was stated, it has no preference among the proposals presented. Embraer reaffirms its unconditional support of this process, always in close alignment with Brazil’s Aeronautics Command and the Ministry of Defense.”

Sept 28/09: Embraer drops a political bombshell, when Embraer’s Deputy Chief Executive for the defense market, Orlando Jose Ferreira Neto, tells Valor Economico that the firm was asked to advise the Air Force re: industrial proposals, and concluded that participating in the JAS-39NG Gripen’s development offers Brazil’s aerospace industry the best long-term benefits. Embraer reportedly saw the JAS-39NG as offering the opportunity to participate in the design process, rather than just producing parts. The opinion is a shock, as France’s interest in buying Embraer’s KC-390 transports was expected to leave Brazil’s top aerospace firm solidly on-side for the Rafale bid. T-1 Holdings executives (see Sept 17/09 entry) were also quoted in the article.

In response, Defence Minister Jobim fires back to say that the government will make these decisions, not Embraer. Dow Jones | Defense Aerospace translations (note: links will not last) | Valor Online, via Noticias Militares [in Portuguese] | Defesa Brazil [in Portuguese] | O Globo [in Portuguese].

Sept 17/09: Saab announces that over 20 engineers from the Brazilian firms Akaer, Friuli, Imbra Aerospace, Minoica, and Winnstal are already working on the Gripen NG project in Linkoping, Sweden, with the Swedish government’s authorization. The 5 firms will participate as the T1 holding, and would be responsible for projecting and manufacturing the JAS-39BR’s central and rear fuselages and wings. If all goes well, Akaer predicts that as of 2010 a team of at least 150 engineers and technicians from the T1 holding will start working in Brazil, alongside 20 Swedish specialists.

Beyond Gripen production, the holding’s goal is to form a new Brazilian aeronautical center in Brazil, and some technology transfer in the area of composite materials is reportedly underway already. Shaping the wing of a supersonic craft requires higher quality levels than civil applications, as well as manufacturing challenges owing to thicker and more resistant parts. Management and integration training within a holding structure of this type will also be required.

Sept 15/09: Boeing kicks off a 2-day conference in Sao Paulo with 140 potential partner and supplier companies, as it reaffirms its Super Hornet offer in advance of the Sept 21/09 submission date. Bob Gower, vice president of the Boeing F/A-18E/F Program stated openly that the Super Hornet’s price “is considerably lower than that of the Rafale.” Boeing’s release also addresses reports of incomplete technology transfer for its product:

“Boeing delivered an offer to the Brazilian Air Force in August that included full technology transfer…. [defined as] the option of Super Hornet co-production in Brazil and the sharing of technology that would allow Brazil to integrate its own weapons.”

Sept 14/09: MercoPress reports remarks by CGT union leader Dominique Richard at Dassault, who is concerned about the extent of technology transfer that may be offered. Dassault, meanwhile, denies that there will be any effect on French jobs. Richard:

“There’s something which troubles us in this contract and is the fact that Brazil wants to have its own military air industry and that the agreement with Dassault, the French government and the Brazilian government includes the transfer of technology.”

See also AnsaLatina [in Spanish].

Sept 13/09: Flight International’s “Closer political ties raise prospects for renewed alliance between Dassault and Embraer” covers the market possibilities.

The 2 firms have very little overlap. Dassault is strong in the high-end executive jet market, but Embraer brackets those offerings with bigger regional jets and lower-end Phenom light and very light jets. Some form of consolidation could make sense. Embraer is also looking to field competition with the Boeing 737 and Airbus A319/320 series, and could benefit from Dassault’s engineering expertise. On the flip side, the KC-390 tactical transport would adds a new product category for Dassault, improving and eventually replacing the Rafale could take a wider set of resources than France and Dassault are willing to supply, and the closure of the Mirage 2000 line leaves a hole in Dassault’s offerings at the light end of the spectrum.

Sept 11/09: Brazil’s MdD announces a Sept 21/09 deadline for Dassault to submit its Rafale business proposal, adding that the other 2 firms can also choose to submit. Defense Minister Nelson Jobim is quoted as saying [translated]:

“Now we have to evaluate the proposals. The commitments that President Sarkozy made will have to be confirmed by Dassault’s offer…. there has been a political decision of the President to expand the strategic alliance with France…. for this policy decision to come into effect, it depends on Dassault and also the others, because there needs to be a comparative evaluation.”

The Brazilian air force (FAB) still expects to complete the technical review process by the end of October 2009, for delivery to the Minister of Defense and the President. The final decision will be the President’s – and Lula has already expressed his clear preference, unless Dassault does something to change it via adverse pricing and financing terms or issues with technology transfer. ”>MdD release & defence aerospace translation | Folha de Sao Paolo re: tech transfer [in Portguese].

Sept 9/09: Aftermath, and clarifications. Brazil’s President and MDD reaffirm their intended defense partnership with France, while the US Embassy correctly notes – and Brazil’s MdD confirms – that no formal decision has been taken yet. This is technically true, but there is no question that the Rafale has been given preferred bidder status. Negotiations would have to fail badly before any other contender had a chance. The Brazilian newspaper Folha de Sao Paolo:

“The expectation is that the deal will be concluded with France, but only if it offers a lower price for the Rafale, the most expensive of the competitors, and a more favorable interest rate. According to [reporting by] Folha de Sao Paulo, Lula rushed into dinner with Sarkozy on Sunday night and skipped several steps of the selection process, which angered the Air Force Command and left Jobim in the crossfire.”

There are also widespread reports that Brazil’s unwillingness to be subject to the USA’s potential ITAR restrictions and technology transfer limits was a key factor in their rejection of the F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet, and of Saab’s JAS-39 Gripen NG (whose F414 engine is American). Brazilian President’s Office | MDD clarification | US Embassy in Brazil | Folha de Sao Paolo & translation via defense aerospace | Gripen International confirms its continued participation.

Sept 7/09: Winner! Brazil’s Ministerio Da Defesa announces that Dassault Aviation is now the F-X2 competition’s preferred bidder, and the country will order 36 Rafales subject to further negotiations. The announcement also says that Brazil has secured French cooperation to develop Embraer’s KC-390 medium transport, and possibly buy 10-12 of the aircraft when they’re introduced.

This sale would be France’s 1st export order for its Rafale fighter, after numerous attempts spanning more than a decade. French technology transfer across a broad range of projects was reportedly the critical factor in the deal, and Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim reportedly said that the decision to begin talks with Dassault “was not adopted in relation to the other two” competing companies. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, meanwhile, described the move as “definitively consolidating a strategic partnership we started in 2005.” Brazil will now produce helicopters (EC725), submarines (nuclear-powered and diesel-electric), transport aircraft (KC-390) and possibly fighters (Rafale) in cooperation with France, under a broad strategic partnership in the defense arena. MDD announcement [Portuguese] | Agence France Presse | France24 | CS Monitor | L.A. Times | Reuters.

Sept 5/09: Brazil’s Defesa@NET explains the expected way forward:

“A Brazilian military expert who runs a specialist magazine titled Defesanet, Nelson During, told AFP that Brazil’s decision should be known in October. “The air force should send its evaluation of the three aircraft to the government on October 23—Day of the Aviator—indicating its choice. Then, the National Defense Council should ratify that choice pretty quickly,” he said.”

Sept 3/09: Brazil’s Defesa@NET refers to an exclusive interview that Agence France Presse conducted with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and offers key quotes:

“A country of Brazil’s importance cannot buy a product from another country without technology transfer…. France has shown itself to be the most flexible country in terms of transferring technology, and evidently, this is an exceptional comparative advantage…. France is the only important country ready to discuss with us technology transfers in all these domains [helicopters, submarines, and fighter jets].... Brazil has drawn up a strategic defense plan. We are convinced … that because of the Amazon, our deep-water offshore oil deposits, Brazil should have a defense industry in keeping with its size and import.”

Aug 21/09: The Brisbane Times covers stepped up lobbying in Brazil, as the decision date is reportedly pushed from September to October 2009.

Aug 6/09: Per US laws, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announces [PDF] Brazil’s formal request to buy up to 36 F/A-18E/F Super hornets and related equipment. The DSCA release is careful to stress that Brazil has yet to select its future fighter; the notice simply gives Brazil full assurance that all aspects of the sale can proceed smoothly if the Super Hornet is selected. This may be why no estimated cost has been given – a departure from DSCA norms.

Industrial offset agreements associated with this proposed sale are expected, but would be defined during negotiations between the purchaser and contractor. The equipment would include:

• 28 F/A-18E Super Hornet Aircraft,
• 8 F/A-18F Super Hornet Aircraft
• 76 F414-GE-400 installed engines: 72 installed, 4 spares
• 36 AN/APG-79 AESA Radar Systems
• 36 M61A2 installed 20mm Gun Systems
• 44 Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing Systems (JHMCS)
• 144 LAU-127 Launchers
• 28 AIM-120C-7 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM)
• 28 AIM-9M Sidewinder short range air-air missiles. AIM-9M is the most common current version in US service, but not the most advanced; that distinction belongs to the AIM-9X. Brazil is collaborating with South Africa on the A-Darter SRAAM, which is intended to be an AIM-9X peer.
• 60 GBU-31/32 Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM)
• 36 AGM-154 Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW) precision glide bombs
• 10 AGM-88B HARM anti-radar missiles. Brazil produces its own missile, but the HARM is already integrated with the Super hornet and Brazil’s weapon is not.
• 36 AN/ASQ-228v2 Advanced Targeting Forward-Looking Infrared (ATFLIR) surveillance and targeting pods.
• 36 AN/ALR-67v3 Radar Warning Receivers
• 36 of BAE’s AN/ALQ-214 Radio Frequency Countermeasures systems
• 40 of BAE’s AN/ALE-47 Electronic Warfare Countermeasures systems
• 112 AN/ALE-50 Towed Decoys
• Plus the Joint Mission Planning System, support equipment, spare and repair parts, personnel training and training equipment, ferry and tanker support, flight test, software support, publications and technical documents, and other support.

The principal contractors were listed as:

• The Boeing Company St. Louis, MO (Super Hornets, JDAM)
• General Electric Aircraft Engines in Lynn, MA (F414-400)
• Northrup Grumman Corporation El Segundo, CA (Super Hornets)
• Raytheon Corporation El Segundo, CA (ATFLIR pods, APG-79 radar, AGM-88, JSOW, AIM-120, AIM-9, ALE-50 towed decoys)
• Lockheed Martin in Bethesda, MD

Implementation of this sale will require approximately 8 contractor representatives to provide technical and logistics support in Brazil for 2 years. U.S. Government and contractor representatives will also participate in program management and technical reviews for 1-week intervals twice semi-annually.

July 13/09: MercoPress reports that deals are in the works between F-X2 contenders and Brazilian companies.

According to MercoPress, Boeing IDS President & CEO Jim Albaugh said agreements have been signed with 27 Brazilian companies that are capable of producing parts for the F/A-18, including Embraer. The move could reportedly translate into 5,000 jobs throughout the entire supply chain.

Saab Gripen’s marketing chief Bob Kemp was reportedly quoted as saying that Gripen International was prepared to shift up to 50% of future production to Brazil.

The report adds that Brazilian President Lula da Silva has invited French President Sarkozy to its independence day celebrations on September 7th, as a guest of honor. Da Silva reportedly said that he hopes to sign new defence accords at that time. This is taken by some as an indication that Dassault’s Rafale is currently the favored candidate. France is Brazil’s most significant defense supplier on a broad range of fronts, however, and so the promise of new accords is not definitive.

May 4/09: Brazil’s FAB issues a release, announcing that revised offers from the participating companies were submitted to F-X2 Project Management (GPF-X2). The companies are listed, and it’s the same list as the finalists and original submissions listed on Feb 2/09: Boeing, Dassault, and Saab. No Russian firms listed.

GPF-X2 has held clarification meetings held since March 2/09. On March 30/09, it began verification visits to see the firms’ facilities, maintenance, R&D labs, and active squadrons; and will make evaluation flights. FAB release [in Portuguese]

April 6/09: Competition re-opened? Russia’s RIA Novosti quotes Alexander Fomin, deputy director of Russia’s Federal Service on Military-Technical Cooperation:

“We are actively participating in the Brazilian tender, which has been reopened. It involves over 100 fighter planes. Russia has made a bid in the tender with its Su-35 multirole fighter. The tender has stiff requirements, involving not only the sale, but also the transfer of technology. It is a key condition of the deal and Russia is ready to satisfy it…. We are discussing with the well-known Brazilian company Embraer the transfer of technology and the construction of facilities for the future licensed production of the aircraft…”

Fomin reportedly added that such a facility could also produce the 5th generation PAK-FA fighter being developed in conjunction with India. Experiences with the American F-22 and F-35 suggest that this would depend on the sophistication of the facilities. Stealth fighters require new equipment and techniques that go beyond normal aircraft construction standards, and a facility set up to produce even 4+ generation fighters may not be adequate.

March 30/09: The Brazilian Air force announces [in Portuguese] that it is beginning visits and technical evaluation of the 3 finalists. This evaluation will include test flights, and evaluation of the bids’ technical, industrial and maintenance offerings.

March 24/09: Dassault’s acquisition of a large stake in Thales led to Thales’ refusal to sell Saab the RBE2-AA AESA radar beyond the Gripen Demo stage. In response, Saab and SELEX Galileo sign an agreement to develop an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar for the JAS-39NG. The arrangement is initially aimed at Brazil’s fighter competition, where it leverages Selex Galileo’s strong pedigree equipping Brazil’s F-5BR fighters (Grifo-F radar) and AMX light attack jets (Scipio radar). Once integrated and proven, however, the AESA upgrade would be available to any Gripen customer.

Per Aviation Week’s March 10/09 report from Aero India, the radar will use a Vixen 500 AESA front end, with “back end” modules from the existing PS-05/A. Using those back end modules simplifies integration, and also avoids the control issues inherent in American alternatives. As it happens, the 2 firms have a long history of radar partnerships. Ericsson (now Saab’s) partner on the original PS-05/A was Ferranti, which became GEC-Marconi, then BAE Systems, and now Selex Galileo. Selex was also Saab’s partner in the recent M-AESA R&D project.

The Vixen 500 AESA radar is currently used in the USA by border surveillance aircraft, but it has yet to see service on a fighter. Korea’s F/A-50 was recently barred from using the Vixen 500E, under an agreement with co-developer Lockheed Martin that did not allow the F/A-50’s capabilities to surpass the ROKAF’s F-16s. Saab | Gripen International.

Feb 2/09: Bids are in. Boeing confirms that it has submitted a bid involving 36 F/A-18 Super Hornet Block IIs, with the APG-79 AESA radar.

Gripen International confirms a bid involving 36 JAS-39NG aircraft, with longer range, AESA radars, and other enhancements. Their release adds that Brazil will have “direct involvement in the development, production and maintenance of the platform but it will also generate transfer of key technology including access to Gripen source codes.”

It is presumed that Dassault also submitted a 36-plane bid for its Rafale fighter. Boeing release | Gripen International release.

FAB Mirage 2000s
(click to view full)

November 2008: Russia and Brazil sign a series of agreements on military technology cooperation. As is customary, the agreements set out protocols for the protection of intellectual property rights and technology secrets, which make joint ventures and local production easier to manage. Source.

Oct 30/08: RFP is out. Brazil’s FAB formally issues the RFP to the short-listed competitors. The 3 firms will have until Feb 2/09 to present their proposals, which must include operational, logistic, industrial, commercial, technical, commercial compensation (offset) and technology transfer details. FAB release [Portuguese].

Oct 1/08: Brazil has decided on its 3 finalists: Boeing’s F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Dassault Aviation’s Rafale, and Saab/BAE’s JAS-39 Gripen.

EADS Eurofighter, Lockheed Martin’s F-16BR, and Sukhoi’s SU-35 all failed to make the cut. Brazilian FAB release [Portuguese] | Reuters | Boeing release | Gripen International release.

Aug 27/08: Defesanet reports that Lockheed Martin will be offering an F-16BR for Brazil’s F-X2, rather than the F-35. The report adds that barriers to technology transfer of some F-35 systems played a role in this decision. Defesanet [Portuguese] | Forecast International.

July 30/08: Boeing delivers a detailed proposal July 30 offering its advanced F/A-18E/F Block II Super Hornet to the Brazilian Air Force. The aircraft would be similar to the F/A-18Fs ordered by the Royal Australian Air Force, and would include Raytheon’s APG-79 Active Electronically Scanned Array radar. Boeing release.

June 12/08: Boeing (and presumably other manufacturers) receive the Brazilian RFP. The stated initial requirement is for 36 aircraft, with the potential for up to 120 aircraft. Boeing release | FAB statment (Brazilian air force).

January 2008: Brazil’s President Lula formally authorizes Brazilian Air Force Commander Juniti Saito to restart the F-X program.

November 2007: Brazil’s decision to hold an “F-X2” competition is announced by the Brazilian press.

Footnotes

¹ Russian firms tend to partner due to local political necessity, or to gain technologies/ quality level they do not have, rather than as a strategic option for penetrating new markets. In Brazil’s case, one logical option would be a partnership with India to offer the thrust-vectoring, canard-winged SU-30MKI, which is arguably superior to the SU-35. The aircraft are partly produced in India, and already have obvious slots for tech transfer because that was built into the Indian program.

A 3-way deal leveraging India’s HAL, and setting up an NPO Saturn engine plant in Brazil, would have offered several benefits. It would offer India and other SU-30 customers a welcome second engine source, even as Brazil’s aerospace industry receives a critical additional puzzle piece in engine construction, the FAB removes the biggest historical problem with Russian planes, and Russia substantially strengthens its lobbying effort.

On the avionics and electronics front, Elbit Systems avionics could be sourced from the Brazilian subsidiary AEL to offer fleet commonality, and some can be found in the SU-30MKI already. Indian electronics used in the SU-30MKI would offer additional options for international cooperation and license production, alongside Israeli options that already equip Brazilian aircraft.

The question is whether the Russians were ever good enough at partnering to pull something like that off, or were even willing to try.

Additional Readings

• GlobalSecurity – F-X BR

• Scramble – Brazilian Air Arms. there are several. The Forca Aerea Brasileira (Air Force), Comando da Forca Aeronaval (Naval air arm, which includes the carrier Sao Paolo – once France’s Foch – and its A-4M Skyhawks), and the Aviacao do Exercito (Army aviation).

• MILAVIA – Brazilian Air Force FAB – Forca Aerea Brasileira

• MILAVIA – Military Aviation Specials – The Mirage 2000 in Brazil

• DID – South Africa, Brazil to Develop A-Darter SRAAM

News, Developments & Commentary

• Council on Hemispheric Affairs (Sept 9/09) – The Brazilian Military Is Back, As It Fleshes Out Its Weaponry And Strategies. COHA’s point of view is left-wing.

• Info LatAm (Sept 6/09) – Carrera Armamentista en América Latina: armas, armas, armas [in Spanish]

• Council on Hemispheric Affairs (Sept 1/09) – Embraer: Brazilian Military Industry becoming a Global Arms Merchant? COHA’s point of view is left-wing.

• Defense News (April 16/09) – IAI Casts Lot for Future Growth with Brazil. “Israeli Aerospace Industries (IAI) looked around the world for its future growth and signed up for Brazil and India, said Yair Shamir, chairman of the diversified aerospace and defense group….”

• Forecast International (Aug 26/08) – Brazil Restarts Big-Ticket Procurement with an Eye to the Future. Sees the 2 biggest ticket items as the F-X2 program, and Brazil’s renewed push to design a nuclear fast attack submarine, in conjunction with the French.

• DID (July 2/08) – Brazil Signs $1B+ Production Deal for Cougar Helicopters. The medium helicopter competition is decided.

• Defesanet (Nov 7/07) – Lula reaparelha Forças Armadas de olho na transferência de tecnologia [in Portugese]. Reprinted from O Estado de Sao Paolo.

• Mercopress, Uruguay (Nov 6/07) – Brazil to boost defense industry and acquire 36 fighter jets

• Bloomberg (Nov 4/07) – Brazil Plans to Buy $2.2 Billion of Fighter Planes, Estado Says

• News Ltd., Australia (Oct 29/07) – Brazil boosts military spending more than 50 percent

• Council on Hemispheric Affairs (March 20/07) – The Russian Arms Merchant raps on Latin America’s Door

• DID Spotlight – Venezuela Buying SU-30s, Helicopters, et. al. From Russia. Covers those deals and updates.

• DID (Nov 22/05) – F.I. Looks At Latin American Arms Market, Sees Venezuelan Buildup. Forecast International valued Venezuela’s military modernization program at up to $30.7 billion through 2012, which would make the country the leading arms buyer in the region through the rest of the decade.

• Jane’s (April 15/05) – Brazil: On a shoestring

• Frost & Sullivan (March 29/07) – Future Fighter Aircraft Requirements in Emerging Economies

• Defesanet (Feb 24/05) – Cancelado o Programa F-X BR

• Defesanet – (Jan 7/05) – F-X is Dead – Long Live F-X

Contenders

• Eurofighter GmbH – Eurofighter Typhoon official site

• DID FOCUS article – The JAS-39 Gripen: Sweden’s 4th Generation Wild Card

• DID FOCUS article – F-35 Joint Strike Fighter: Events & Contracts 2008 (updated). Also contains key data regarding the various Lightning II versions, and the program.

• DID FOCUS article – The UAE’s F-16 Block 60 Desert Falcon Fleet. This is currently the most advanced F-16 variant in the world.

• Air Force Technology – Rafale Multi-Role Combat Fighter, France

• DID FOCUS -Russia’s SU-35: Mystery Fighter No More. The MAKS 2007 air show is Moscow appears to have clarified the issue at last – it’s closer to Venezuela’s SU-30MKs than India’s more advanced SU-30MKIs.

• Air Force Technology – F/A-18E/F Super Hornet Maritime Strike Attack Aircraft, USA

• Foreign Policy Centre (Sept 27/09) – The choice of French fighter aircraft in Brazil and its impact on Latin America. The FPC is based in Britain.

• Flight International (Sept 13/09) – Closer political ties raise prospects for renewed alliance between Dassault and Embraer

• Flight International (March 13/07) – Ultra Hornet. Describes the updates to create the Hornet Block 30/Block II; the performance enhancements are all electronic rather than aerodynamic. Interestingly, among future Flightplan enhancements is a limited electronic attack function for all APG-79 AESA radars.